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NCAA Softball Championship Regional Predictions for 2024

Oklahoma's Nicole May (19) and Alyssa Brito (33) celebrate after the Big 12 softball tournament championship game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and Texas Longhorns at Devon Park in Oklahoma City, Saturday, May 11, 2024. Oklahoma won 5-1.

The 2024 NCAA Softball Championship Regionals will take place from Friday, May 17, through Sunday, May 19. Of the 64 teams that made the original field, just 16 will advance to the Super Regionals next weekend (May 23-26).

In 2023, three unseeded teams advanced to Super Regional weekend, and in 2022, five unseeded teams pulled off upsets to advance.

With that in mind, we are bound to see more parity in the 2024 Tournament, but where will it strike? Come along as we try to predict who will stay alive in the quest to end up in Oklahoma City.


Austin Regional

1 Texas (47-7) | Northwestern (33-11) | Saint Francis (40-12) | Siena (33-20)

Texas has looked like one of the two best teams in the country for the entire season. The Longhorns have a top-three offense and top-10 pitching staff as the postseason gets underway and their also coming of their first loss since early April.

No disrespect to Northwestern, or the Big Ten for that matter, but this should be a cakewalk for the Longhorns, whom I expect to come out on fire in front of a home crowd.

Winner: Texas

Norman Regional

2 Oklahoma (49-6) | Oregon (28-19) | Boston (52-4-1) | Cleveland State (22-24)

Oklahoma started to look more like the team we’ve watched win back-to-back-to-back national championships at the Big 12 Championship last week. It’s a good thing, too, because the Boston team that is coming to Norman is no joke. The Terriers lead the country in ERA (1.26), rank third in fielding (.981), and 21st in scoring (6.04).

While the Sooners get pushed a little further than the home crowd would prefer, I like OU to be the first No. 2 seed to get out of the opening weekend since the 2021 Tournament.

Winner: Oklahoma


Knoxville Regional

3 Tennessee (40-10) | Miami, OH (48-7) | Virginia (32-18) | Dayton (33-19)

I had very high hopes for Tennessee this postseason, and there’s still plenty of reason to believe that the Vols will be the team walking out of Knoxville for Super Regionals. However, they are incredibly unfortunate to draw Miami (OH) as the two-seed in their region. The Redhawks lead the nation in scoring with a whopping 9.15 runs per game and are on a historic pace for home runs with 159 in the year, 59 more than Oklahoma has in the same number of games.

Tennessee has an elite pitching staff and has all the tools to be one of the final eight teams in OKC, but something tells me Miami (OH) will pull off a stunner to advance to Super Regionals.

Winner: Miami (OH)

Gainesville Regional

4 Florida (46-12) | Fla. Atlantic (41-14) | S. Alabama (32-18-1) | FGCU (37-19)

Florida enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Gators won the SEC Tournament over Missouri and ride an eight-game winning streak into the weekend, with all eight wins coming over ranked opponents.

Florida Atlantic and South Alabama are scary mid-major programs, but they’re running into UF at the wrong time.

Winner: Florida


Stillwater Regional

5 Oklahoma State (44-10) | Kentucky (30-22) | Michigan (41-16) | N. Colorado (27-24)

Oklahoma State is the only program in the country to log series victories over the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Then, the Cowgirls put up a five-error performance against BYU in the Big 12 Championship and failed to reach the semifinals.

That’s bad news for the teams coming to Stillwater this weekend. Sure, Michigan and Kentucky are a tough draw for Regional play, but that won’t matter this weekend. Oklahoma State advances, and looks dominant in doing so.

Winner: Oklahoma State

Los Angeles Regional

6 UCLA (37-10) | Virginia Tech (39-12-1) | SDSU (31-18) | Grand Canyon (48-11)

Last year, we saw UCLA go down as the No. 2 seed in a tough region that eventually produced San Diego State as its victor. The Aztecs are back in Los Angeles, and Virginia Tech provides a scary opponent for the hometown Bruins as well.

Despite that, I like where this UCLA team is right now and feel like they’re playing their best ball of the year. That wasn’t the case for the 2023 squad, and it cost them. I don’t see lightning striking twice here.

Winner: UCLA

Columbia Regional

7 Missouri (43-15) | Washington (31-13) | Indiana (40-18) | Omaha (41-13)

This is a tough regional pull for Missouri. Omaha comes in as the worst of the bunch, and checks in at No. 67 in RPI. Washington has what it takes to make a run, and Indiana is the best team that the Big Ten has to offer.

Still, I’ll ride with the SEC runner-up that’s gone 13-13 against Top 25 teams in 2024 and finished 6th in the RPI.

Winner: Missouri

Palo Alto Regional

8 Stanford (43-13) | Mississippi St. (33-18) | Cal St. Fullerton (36-17) | Saint Mary’s (30-22)

Stanford has the best pitcher in the country in NiJaree Canady and she’ll all but neutralize Mississippi State’s offense, which is the only other unit that can go toe-to-toe with the Cardinal.

This one will come down to the Bulldogs and Cardinal on Sunday, and I’ll take Stanford in a battle that needs Game 7 to decide who moves on.

Winner: Stanford

Baton Rouge Regional

9 LSU (40-15) | California (36-17) | Southern Illinois (42-9) | Jackson St. (33-17)

LSU ace Sydney Berzon is one of the top arms in the SEC and will be relied on heavily in the postseason if the Tigers are going to make a run to Oklahoma City. However, Southern Illinois’ Maddia Groff (0.81 ERA) has been downright sensational for the Salukis this year, with the second-best ERA in the country.

SIU is the surprise team in this region, as they push LSU to the brink on Sunday before ultimately falling short in a decisive Game 7.

Winner: LSU

Durham Regional

10 Duke (47-6) | South Carolina (34-22) | Utah (34-20) | Morgan St. (35-18)

The Duke Blue Devils come into the NCAA Tournament feeling a bit disrespected after winning the ACC Tournament, finishing the season as the No. 3 team in RPI, and still failing to get a top-eight seed.

Unfortunately for South Carolina, Utah, and Morgan State, this weekend feels like a “prove-it” moment for Marissa Young’s squad. Duke rolls into Super Regionals with Missouri next in line.

Winner: Duke

Athens Regional

11 Georgia (39-16) | Charlotte (38-16) | Liberty (36-23) | UNCW (33-21)

There was a time this season when I would’ve picked Georgia to be one of the final eight teams standing in Oklahoma City. However, with the Bulldogs losing five of their last six SEC series, I’ve lost quite a bit of faith. Still, with a grueling SEC slate to prepare them, it feels like UGA can work their way through this weekend despite the tough draws.

I’ll take the Dawgs here, but I don’t feel great about it and wouldn’t be surprised if Charlotte and Liberty were the two teams left playing on Sunday.

Winner: Georgia

Fayetteville Regional

12 Arkansas (36-16) | Arizona (34-16-1) | Villanova (31-22) | SEMO (28-24)

Arkansas got hosed with Arizona being picked as the No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Regional. The Hogs check in at No. 14 in RPI, and Arizona is just six spots back at No. 22.

It’s a tough draw for the Razorbacks, and these two teams split a pair of games back in February. The improvement that we’ve seen from Arizona since then gives me confidence that they’ll move on to the Supers and head to Stillwater next weekend.

Winner: Arizona

Lafayette Regional

13 Louisiana (42-17) | Baylor (33-20) | Ole Miss (31-25) | Princeton (29-16)

Louisiana is the highest-ranked non-Power 5 team (CFP?) in the RPI at No. 11, but drawing Baylor (No. 18) as the No. 2 seed in their region is tough. The Bears seemed to play better ball as the season started to wrap up, and their incredibly tough nonconference slate bodes well for postseason play.

Add to that the fact that Baylor took two of three from Louisiana earlier this year at Lamson Park, and this seed “upset” makes almost too much sense.

Winner: Baylor

Tuscaloosa Regional

14 Alabama (33-17) | Clemson (34-17) | SE Louisiana (45-13) | USC Upstate (30-21)

While it would technically be an upset, it feels like I’m almost supposed to pick Valerie Cagle and the Clemson Tigers over Alabama in this region. Alabama is 16th in RPI, and Clemson is 19th, so this is a virtual toss-up from that standpoint.

Combine that with Alabama’s disappointing finish to the season, and the Clemson pick is a no-brainer.

Winner: Clemson

Tallahassee Regional

15 Florida State (43-14) | Auburn (27-19-1) | UCF (30-23) | Chattanooga (42-14)

Florida State carries one of the nation’s most prominent offenses into the NCAA Tournament, but they’ll face one of the most efficient pitching staffs in the country in Auburn.

The Tigers are battle-tested and have been playing well as of late, but Florida State’s offense is too much for Auburn over two games, advancing the Noles to Norman next weekend.

Winner: Florida State

Durham Regional

16 Texas A&M (40-13) | Texas State (45-13) | Penn State (34-18) | UAlbany (33-12)

Texas A&M had an impressive season after finishing as the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament. They were rewarded for their success with the final national seed in the tournament.

They were also rewarded with hosting Texas State, who checks in as the No. 17 team in RPI and is 4-4 against Top 25 teams this season. The Bobcats have already beaten the Aggies once this season, and they’ll do it two more times this weekend.

Winner: Texas State

Predicted NCAA Softball Super Regionals

  • Texas State at 1 Texas
  • 9 LSU vs. 8 Stanford
  • Arizona at 5 Oklahoma State
  • Baylor at 4 Florida
  • Clemson at Miami (OH)
  • 11 Georgia at 6 UCLA
  • 10 Duke at 7 Missouri
  • 15 Florida State at 2 Oklahoma

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