Kansas State Wildcats

K-State Football: Is the 9.5-Win Total Too High in 2024?

Oct 14, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (5) hands the ball to running back DJ Giddens (31) in the first half during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The sports betting apps all agree that K-State football’s O/U win total for this fall is 9.5.

When I first saw it, I thought that number was a little high. Win totals set that high are usually reserved for programs like Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Georgia, and Clemson.

So, I was curious to take a deeper look at the schedule to see if this number of wins is something the Wildcats can accomplish or if this team is a bit overhyped.

 

Chris Klieman’s Wildcats have hit the “over” in each of the last two seasons.

In 2022, the over/under was seven, and they got nine regular-season wins. In 2023, the over/under was 7.5, and they finished with eight regular-season wins. To hit the over this fall, K-State would have to go 10-2 at a minimum. Can they hit the “over” three years in a row? Here is a breakdown of the schedule, along with whether I see each game as a likely win or loss.

August 31 – vs. UT Martin

No reason for this one not to be a win.

September 7th – at Tulane

I don’t like that it’s on the road, but this one should also be a win.

September 13th – vs. Arizona

This is a conference game that doesn’t count in the conference standings because it was scheduled before Arizona joined the Big 12. I don’t like that it is on a Friday night, but according to my favorite betting app, K-State is already a 7.5-point favorite, so I think the Wildcats should win this one.

 

September 21st – at BYU

This could be a tough road game, but K-State should be favored to win.

September 28th – vs. Oklahoma State

You never know what you’re going to get with the Cowboys, but I like that this game is at home. The Wildcats should be slightly favored.

October 12th – at Colorado

Colorado has a lot of hype, and K-State is more substance and will likely be favored to win.

October 19th – at West Virginia

Depending on how good the Mountaineers are, this game could be a problem for the Wildcats. However, K-State should be favored.

October 26th – vs. Kansas

Kansas will be improved. Glad this one is at home. K-State should be favored to win.

 

November 2nd – at Houston

Houston didn’t show much last year in their first season in the Big 12. This is a likely win for K-State.

November 16th – vs. Arizona State

Arizona State was 2-9 last season in the Pac-12. Not sure what to expect of them this season, but I think this is a likely win.

November 23rd – vs. Cincinnati

Cincinnati was 3-9 last season. As of right now, I’m expecting more of the same and for K-State to take care of business at home.

November 30th – at Iowa State

A revenge game against the Cyclones? Hope it doesn’t snow.

Conclusion

I’ll be honest. K-State could run the table in the Big 12. There are also three or four games they could lose. I’d wait to bet, but if you put a gun to my head, I would bet the over. This appears to be K-State’s easiest schedule in a long time. The 9.5 win O/U seems about right to me.

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