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ESPN FPI Gives Big 12 3.6% Chance to Win National Championship

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ESPN released its updated iteration of the Football Power Index (FPI), a tool frequently used to forecast every team’s record in the upcoming season, but also that team’s chances of winning a conference title, making a College Football Playoff appearance, and winning a national championship.

The FPI metric is used heavily when comparing teams that don’t play one another in a given regular season. In many ways, it is a tool that the CFP committee turns to when it comes time to split hairs.

Something else that the FPI is useful for is to compare conferences, or rather the teams in a given conference that could be in contention for one of the 12 playoff spots that we will see going forward. Mor importantly, ESPN’s FPI runs simulations in order to predict which teams are most likely to win the CFP Championship in 2024.


So, how did things break out?

Well, the Big 12 finds itself on the wrong end of the scale when it comes to title odds. According to FPI, the Big 12 has just a 3.6% chance of winning the CFP, with the Kansas Jayhawks (1.1%) being the team with the best odds of getting it done.

2024 Title Chances By Conference (ESPN FPI)

SEC52.5%Georgia (20.7%)
Big Ten32.3%Oregon (12.9%)
ACC6.0%Florida State (2.5%)
Independents5.1%Notre Dame (5.1%)
Big 123.6%Kansas (1.1%)
According to ESPN Analytics

Not surprisingly, ESPN’s model likes the SEC (52.5%) and the Big Ten (32.3%) way better than any of the other conferences when it comes to winning a national title.

In fact, the Georgia Bulldogs (20.7%), Oregon Ducks (12.9%), Texas Longhorns (11.7%), and Ohio State Buckeyes (10.2%) all have better than 10% chances to win the whole thing, and they all hale from one of those two conferences.

With so many changes coming to college football in 2024, it appears we are entering an era where the gap between the SEC, Big Ten, and everybody else continues to grow wider. It’s a harsh reality for many of us, but the metrics and forecasts are only going to get more and more lopsided from here–that is, unless we see some big changes at some point.

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