Kansas State Wildcats

On3: Kansas State’s Win Total of 9.5 is ‘Too Low’

Oct 14, 2023; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (5) hands the ball to running back DJ Giddens (31) in the first half during the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

On Thursday, On3’s Jesse Simonton released his analysis of the Big 12 win total projections for the 2024 season, grading them as either “Too High,” Too Low,” or “Just Right.”

In this Goldilocks-esque grading scale, there was one particularly eye-popping mark that caught my attention.

Chris Klieman’s Kansas State Wildcats are seen as co-favorites in the Big 12 this season, sharing the expectations with the newcomers, Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes.


The Wildcats and Utes check in with win totals of 9.5, which Simonton says is just right for Utah. However, for Kansas State, he says 9.5 wins seems a little low.

“Klieman reloaded the defensive depth chart with some spring signees, and despite some likely growing pains replacing four starting offensive linemen, the Wildcats stand to be favored in at least 10 games this fall,” Simonton writes. “Even in an ultra-competitive Big 12, a 10-2 season looks more than reasonable.”

Expectations for Kansas State in 2024 are sky-high, but should their win total be increased to the 10.5 threshold? That would put them in company with teams like Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State, and Oregon.

Simonton’s argument certainly has some validity when you take a look at the Wildcats’ schedule.


Kansas State football 2024 schedule

Aug 31 | vs. UT Martin

Sep 7 | at Tulane

Sep 13 | vs. Arizona (Fri)

Sep 21 | at BYU

Sep 28 | vs. Oklahoma State

Oct 12 | at Colorado

Oct 19 | at West Virginia

Oct 26 | vs. Kansas

Nov 2 | at Houston

Nov 16 | vs. Arizona State

Nov 23 | vs. Cincinnati

Nov 30 | at Iowa State

Note: Big 12 Games in Italics

When looking at that schedule, can you find three losses, especially given what we’ve come to expect of Chris Klieman’s teams?

Personally, that looks like a 10-2 schedule, at worst, if the Wildcats can stay healthy.

Do you agree? Let us know what you think in the forums!

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