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Blue-Chip Ratio Shows No Big 12 Teams Capable of Winning National Title in 2024

Oct 22, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A general view of the Big 12 Logo on the field before the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The “blue-chip ratio” has become one of the most accepted metrics in college football as, time and again, it is used to project which teams are capable of winning a national title in a given year.

Created by CBS Sports’ Bud Elliott in 2013, the metric is actually pretty simple: teams capable of winning a national championship have a roster makeup that is made up of more four- and five-star recruits (“blue-chips”) than it is two- and three-star players.

This doesn’t mean that coaching, culture, and development aren’t important in building a national title contender. It also doesn’t mean that teams can’t supplement their rosters with the transfer portal to become title contenders.

 

What it means is this: in Elliott’s words, it’s “an excellent method for identifying the top 10% of teams that realistically have a shot at winning the title.”

On top of that, it’s incredibly reliable to this point. Since 2011, all 13 teams that have won national titles have been above the magic 50% blue-chip ratio line.

So, with that in mind, what does the blue-chip ratio for the 2024 season look like?

Well, it doesn’t bode well for the Big 12, that’s for sure. Here’s a look at the 16 teams that make the cut entering the 2024 season, courtesy of CBS Sports.

  • Ohio State (90%)
  • Alabama (88%)
  • Georgia (80%)
  • Texas A&M (79%)
  • Oregon (76%)
  • Oklahoma (73%)
  • Texas (72%)
  • LSU (70%)
  • Notre Dame (67%)
  • Clemson (64%)
  • Florida (63%)
  • Miami (61%)
  • Penn State (61%)
  • USC (59%)
  • Michigan (56%)
  • Auburn (53%)
 

There doesn’t appear to be a Big 12 team anywhere near the 50% threshold, either. Elliott says that Florida State (49%) is the only team he expects to make the jump next year and that no other team is reasonably within two cycles of making it to 50% or higher.

Does that mean we won’t see a Big 12 National Champion in the next three years? Well, it’s not a guarantee by any means, but the numbers seem to suggest that it’s becoming less likely as the SEC and Big Ten pull away.

Of the 16 teams on the list, 13 are SEC or Big Ten members. Furthermore, the SEC has eight schools on the list, which is more than the Big Ten and ACC have combined. Notre Dame is the one outlier, and it’s not affiliated with any conference.

So, if you’re holding your breath and hoping a Big 12 team is going to crash the party anytime soon, the numbers just aren’t in your favor. Sure, we could see a team defy the odds, but then again, we’ve been waiting to see that for 13 years, and yet, here we are.

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