It’s August, and that means that folks around the country are excited about the return of college football. All across the nation, fans have spent the last seven months talking themselves into the 2024 season being the year that the [*insert team mascot*] will finally go all the way and win a title — or even just a bowl game.
In the Big 12, there are more than a handful of teams that like their chances of winning a conference title, and doing so in 2024 would mean a bid to the College Football Playoff — where they’d get a chance to play for a national championship.
However, some pundits believe that the Big 12’s hope for a national title is nill — zero, zilch, nada.
One such expert is Greg McElroy, who spelled out his thoughts on the league’s title contenders — or lack thereof — in a recent episode of his ESPN podcast, “Always College Football.”
In talking about the Big 12 “tiers” heading into the 2024 season, McElroy points out that, while he believes there are several good teams in the league, there’s not a single national title contender amond the 16-team Big 12.
“There are none in this league,” McElroy said. “With all due respect to the Utah Utes and the Kansas State Wildcats, the Kansas Jayhawks, and the Oklahoma State Cowboys, I think there’s a lot of teams in this league that can get to the College Football Playoff. I just don’t think there are any that can win the national championship.”
He further emphasized that sentiment by explaining that he thinks there’s a gap that the Big 12 needs to make up between it and the conferences located above it.
“The gap that currently exists between the Big 12 and that of the Big Ten, SEC, and even the top end of the ACC? I think there is a gap there,” McElroy continued.
So, is there merit to what McElroy is saying here, or is this just another pessimistic take about the league that everyone seems to pile on any chance they get?
Well…
The Big Ten, SEC, and ACC have combined for each of the last 18 national championships in college football, dating back to Texas’ national title in 2005 — the last time a team from the Big 12 reached the peak.
In that span, just nine teams have accomplished the feat, and all but four have been repeat champions.
- Alabama, 6 (’09, ’11, ’12, ’15, ’17, ’20)
- Georgia, 2 (’21, ’22)
- Clemson, 2 (’16, ’18)
- LSU, 2 (’07, ’19)
- Florida, 2 (’06, ’08)
- Michigan, 1 (’23)
- Ohio State (’14)
- Florida State (’13)
- Auburn (’10)
With Texas and Oklahoma now gone from the league, the last time a current Big 12 school won a legitimate national title was Colorado in 1990 — Sorry, 2017 UCF.
Before that, you would have to go back to Oklahoma State’s national title in 1945 (which was awarded retroactively) to find the next-most recent national title from a current member of the Big 12.
So, while it’s a tough pill to swallow, there’s not much historical evidence to suggest that a national title winner is coming out of the Big 12 any time soon, although the data would suggest that the league is due. That’s not to say that the Big 12 can’t win a national title in football in 2024, but history does seem to say it’s highly unlikely.
