Houston stopped a five-game losing run that had lasted since early November 2023 when the Cougars beat Rice earlier this season. This marked the inaugural victory under the new head coach, Willie Fritz.
However, as many believed this could be a turning point as Fritz settled in, they were shot back down to reality this past weekend.
The Cougars have a formidable challenge to attain significance in the Big 12 this term, having concluded last season with a 2-7 record in conference play. More worryingly, they’ll now embark on an extensive road schedule for the end of September and early October, competing in three of their next four games away from home, including this Saturday’s painful shutout against Cincinnati.
Optimism remains, of course. We’re still in the early stages of the season, and prior to the Cincy loss on Saturday, Houston’s defense was positioned third among Big 12 teams for the least overall yards permitted per game at 238.7 and for passing yards at 123.7.
In contrast, they ranked penultimate in both categories last year. Furthermore, the three starting quarterbacks who faced Houston before Brendan Sorsby have not achieved a completion rate of 60% or higher on their passes.
We’re only four games into the season, so perception is still a viable stance. That said, can the Houston Cougars really achieve any dominance in the Big 12 this season?
The Willie Fritz Plan
Willie Fritz arrived in Houston prepared to establish a robust football program. The veteran head coach required a significant opportunity and discovered it following his tenure at Tulane. His emphasis extends beyond the scoreboard to lead his squad to success. His “Keys to Success” is a fundamental component of his methodology, offering a systematic strategy that transcends mere skill.
Fritz argues that although he has coached teams possessing intrinsic talent for success, this season’s UH squad requires every advantage to secure victory. Fritz’s ideology will be tested as UH prepares for a challenging Big 12 schedule.
Fritz’ Five Keys to Success:
Special Teams
This is arguably the most frustrating aspect for Fritz, who is deeply engaged in the special teams strategy. Special teams must address many deficiencies before challenging in conference play, including four penalties in the season opener against UNLV, a questionable muffed punt by Mekhi Mews against Oklahoma, and snapping concerns against Rice. Mews had a resurgence with a 75-yard punt return for a touchdown against the Owls.
Running the Ball
“Regulate the clock, regulate the game” is a component of Fritz’s philosophy. Following difficulties in the initial two meetings of the season with a mere 96 rushing yards, Houston achieved a season-best of 237 yards versus Rice. In contrast to the 16-12 defeat against Oklahoma, where the Cougars dominated time of possession, they demonstrated its prowess with the rushing efforts of Sanford and Sneed, as well as a couple of TD’s from Smith.
Looking after the football
Following three interceptions in the initial two games — defeats against UNLV and Oklahoma — quarterback Donovan Smith had his first error-free performance of the season in last week’s 33-7 victory against Rice, finally stressing Fritz’s belief that his team must look after the football. In addition, UH’s defense has recorded an interception in three of four games this season.
Houston shouldn’t beat Houston
This comprehensive category includes errors such as frivolous mistakes, missed tackles, inappropriate penalties, lack of assignment knowledge, and incorrect route execution. UH had 23 penalties for 208 yds, ranking 102nd out of 133 subdivision teams, and this was before their Big 12 opener versus Cincy.
Finish the job
We’ve seen UH poised to secure victory in the fourth quarter of two out of four games, only to go on and fumble the game and lose the lead. A safety in a contentious situation with about two minutes remaining eliminated any possibility of an upset victory over Oklahoma. Despite both teams scoring in the fourth quarter, UH exhibited dominance against Rice, conceding a score only in the last 68 seconds, thus matching Fritz’s ‘finish the job’ mantra.
Big 12 Betting Odds
Houston is far from being a challenger for the Big 12 Championship trophy. Fritz’s experience could build this team for the future, but as of now, as evidenced by the best football betting apps displaying unfavorable odds, they’re far from achieving potential dominance in the Big 12.
Favorites to win the Big 12 Championship: Utah Utes +200
Least-Favored to win the Big 12 Championship: +1400
Looking at the Positives
Why have we left Houston’s statistics from the Cincy game absent?
Well, the game was a complete shutout. The Cincinnati Bearcats opened their Big 12 conference play with a commanding 34-0 shutout victory over the Houston Cougars, and we cannot judge UH on a lone landslide defeat so early in the season.
Although external perceptions may suggest that Houston’s present statistics are unfavorable in the Big 12, they can elevate themselves from their lowest standing in the betting odds.
This defensive squad has significantly improved under new management, having restricted the then-No. 15-ranked Oklahoma to sixteen points, their lowest total over three years. In the subsequent week, they enhanced their performance by preventing Rice from scoring for three quarters until conceding their only score of the game in the fourth quarter.
The Cougars offense achieved a season-high of 33 points against Rice, indicating development, and Houston can maintain this momentum as the season advances.
We witnessed a bunch of explosive plays on the ground, including junior running back Stacey Sneed’s 65-yard rushing score and senior quarterback Donovan Smith’s 37-yard keeper, during which he eluded Rice’s defense unscathed for six points. This would ultimately become the longest rush of his collegiate career.
While we do not anticipate a title contender, Fritz is resolute in his aim to improve the Cougars’ previous 2-7 conference record of 2023/24, striving for the club to assert themselves in the Big 12.
