The Big 12 college football season enters Week 4 with the conference slate entering full swing. The Big 12 has eight games on the scheduling, including six conference games and two non-conference games. All of the Big 12 conference games have spreads at a touchdown or less, meaning the Big 12 is totally up in the air and even Las Vegas oddsmakers don’t really know how to create the spreads for this conference. At least not until some league games are played.
Here are three picks I like this week.
Arkansas State +21 at Iowa State
Arkansas State is coming off a 10-point loss at Michigan, and while much of their scoring came in the fourth quarter after the game was out of reach, it likely gives them a little confidence heading up to Ames this weekend. Iowa State football is off the bye week, but still living in the glory of their last-second win vs. Iowa in Week 2.
Matt Campbell isn’t one who feels the need to blow out lesser competition. In fact, he just wants to get out of a game like this with a win, while not showing much to future opponents on game film. That’s what I see Iowa State doing in this game, and as a result the Red Wolves get the cover on the road.
HCS Preview and Prediction: Iowa State vs. Arkansas State
TCU -3 at SMU
TCU heads into this game after a heartbreaking loss at home to UCF last week, which opened up Big 12 play. But the Horned Frogs showed, for much of that game, they can be a vastly improved team over last season. They just got worn down by UCF’s running game, which won’t happen against SMU.
The TCU Horned Frogs will be eager to get the taste of that loss out of their mouths and will take it out on a Mustangs team that is coming off a loss two weeks ago against a BYU team that is improved, but doesn’t have the talent of this TCU team. Plus, SMU has questions in the secondary and with Josh Hoover off to a hot start, I expect him to have a big game on Saturday night in Dallas as TCU gets a win and covers the spread.
HCS Preview and Prediction: TCU vs. SMU
Baylor +2 at Colorado
This is a game between two teams who are still out to prove something in the early season. But Baylor looks much improved, especially on the defensive side of the ball with Dave Aranda calling plays for the Bears.
Meantime, for all the attention Colorado gets, the program hasn’t won a game vs. a Power conference team since October 7th of last season. If Baylor can methodically own Time of Possession, and keep Travis Hunter on the field, the Bears will wear him out for the offensive side of the ball, keep Sanders & Co. out of a rhythm and pull off a win to start Big 12 play, which Dave Aranda desperately needs to avoid hot-seat talk moving forward.
Oh, and don’t look now, but Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last five games dating back to last season.
HCS Preview and Prediction: Baylor vs. Colorado
