BYU vs. Baylor: Prediction, Preview, Picks, Betting Odds
Week 5 of the college football season is here. BYU football plays Baylor, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Saturday, Sept. 28; 11 a.m. (CT); McLane Stadium; Waco, Texas
TV: FS1
Records: BYU (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12); Baylor (2-2, 0-1)
Last Week: BYU def. Kansas State, 38-9; Baylor lost to Colorado, 38-31 (OT)
Series History: Tied, 2-2.
Last Meeting: BYU 26, Baylor 20, 2 OT (2022).
Fun Fact: This is the third time in four years the two schools have met but it’s the first time they’ll meet as conference rivals. Their last meeting in Waco, in 2021, the Bears posted a 38-24 win over then No. 19 BYU. The Cougars are ranked No. 22 after their win over Kansas State.
BYU vs. Baylor Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: Baylor (-3)
Over/Under: 45.5
Key Players
BYU Cougars
WR Chase Roberts
When quarterback Jake Retzlaff is ready to throw the ball, Roberts is the first receiver he’s looking for. In four games he has 17 receptions for 310 yards and one touchdown. How ubiquitous is he in this offense? No other receiver has have as many receptions or half as much yardage as him. It’s not that the Cougars don’t have other targets. It’s just that Roberts is such a good target there’s no reason not to look his way first.
LB Harrison Taggart
One year abroad (well, Oregon) was enough to get the Draper, Utah, native to transfer back to BYU before the 2023 season. Now he’s emerged as the Cougars’ leading tackler through their first four games. He has 25 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, an interception and three pass breakups. You want perspective? Last year he had 28 tackles. He’s emerging as a go-to presence in BYU’s resurgent defense.
Baylor
QB Sawyer Robertson
Baylor coach Dave Aranda said this when he was asked if Robertson would start on Saturday: “I’m really confident in him. I think he’s getting better with each start. So I’m looking forward to this next one. ” It’s looking more and more like it is the Mississippi State transfer’s team to run even when Dequan Finn is ready to return. The junior threw for 148 yards and two touchdowns, along with rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown. Baylor could use more in the passing game, but his overall play is encouraging.
LB Garmon Randolph
Four games into the season and the fifth-year senior could put together a career-best campaign at this rate. No Bear has been better at getting to the quarterback so far, as he leads the team with 2.5 sacks. He also has 12 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss. BYU enters the game with an effective quarterback, which means Randolph will have to be on his game.
KEY STORYLINES
BYU
Did anyone have BYU in the AP Top 25 after four weeks on their bingo card? Probably not. But the Cougars’ win over Kansas State wasn’t an upset — it was a statement. Coach Kalani Sitake knew his team had to get better up front on both sides of the ball and the Cougars have. He knew they need to run the ball better this season and they have. He also knew his team had to get better at creating game-changing plays, and they have. It’s early, but the Cougars appear to be a team intent on being a factor in the Big 12 race.
Baylor
So, after four games how warm is Aranda’s hot seat? Pulling off a win at Colorado to open conference play would have helped his case. But how the Bears lost it is going to stick out, especially if Baylor fails to reach a bowl game or worse. Robertson seems to have energized the offense in Finn’s absence. Plus, break down the film and it’s clear the Bears have the talent to do the things they want on both sides of the ball. They just have to, well, finish.
PREDICTION: Baylor 31, BYU 28
BYU comes into this game on a high after beating Kansas State. But the Cougars have done the road Saturday morning game in Waco before and, well, it didn’t go all that well. Baylor showed us something last week, even with the loss. The Bears will build on it, finish the job and send BYU home with some things to think about.
