Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech: Prediction, Preview, Betting Odds
Week 5 of the college football season is here. Cincinnati plays Texas Tech, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.
GAME INFO
Saturday, September 28; 7:00 p.m. (CT); Jones AT&T Stadium; Lubbock, TX
TV: ESPN2
Records: Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0); Texas Tech (3-1, 1-0)
Last Week: Cincinnati 34, Houston 0; Texas Tech 30, Arizona State 22
Series History: Tied, 0-0-1
Last Meeting: Cincinnati 10, Texas Tech 10 (1968)
Fun Fact: This game will pit two of the Big 12’s hottest offenses against one another as Texas Tech (487.5) and Cincinnati (467.5) rank second and third in the Big 12 in total offense.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Betting Lines and Odds
Opening Line: Texas Tech (-3.0)
Over/Under: 58.5
Key Players
Cincinnati Bearcats
QB Brendan Sorsby
QB Brendan Sorsby is coming off an impressive performance against Houston last week. His first pass was incomplete, but he went on to complete his next 12 attempts, including two touchdown passes to Xzavier Henderson. He finished 12-of-15 for 188 yards and two touchdowns, adding an eight-yard touchdown run, finishing with a perfect 158.3 passer rating under the NFL formula.
LB Jared Bartlett
After spending five seasons at West Virginia, linebacker Jared Bartlett has stepped right in and become the leading tackler for the Bearcats through four games with 20 total stops. Adding a vast amount of experience and physical nature to the middle of Cincy’s defense, Bartlett has been a game-changer to this point and figures to continue as such as the season progresses.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
RB Tahj Brooks
Tahj Brooks has been Texas Tech’s most crucial offensive player this season. In the three games he’s been available this season, he’s gone over 100 yards on the ground, and the Red Raiders are a perfect 3-0 in those contests. Conversely, in the one game that Brooks missed, the TTU offense managed just 16 points on the road at Washington State and lost 37-16. Brooks will need to get the ground game going against Cincinnati if Texas Tech is going to move to 4-1 on the year.
LB Jacob Rodriguez/LB Ben Roberts
Typically, I would narrow down to just one player on the defense, but in this case I am making an exception. Texas Tech linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts are tied for the lead with 28 tackles each and Roberts leads the Big 12 with two forced fumbles on the year, while Rodrigues has a FF of his own. With Cincinnati’s offense starting to find its footing, these two will be key factors in stopping Sorsby and the Bearcats’ leading rusher, Corey Kiner.
KEY STORYLINES
Cincinnati Bearcats
How does Cincinnati look on the road? Going to Oxford, Ohio, to play Miami (OH) is one road test, and going to Lubbock, Texas, for a 7:00 p.m. kick is another. Keeping your composure in the land of thrown tortillas (and batteries?) can be tricky, but that’s exactly what the Bearcats will have to do if they hope to get to 2-0 in Big 12 play. Scott Satterfield’s team has responded well since their disappointing loss to Pitt, but this is their first trip outside of Ohio in 2024. How they hold up in front of a hostile crowd will be a critical factor in the game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Can Texas Tech capitalize in the red zone? In front of a home crowd for the third consecutive week, Texas Tech will hope to use a rowdy home environment to get their fourth win of the year. However, that will likely take a productive day from Tahj Brooks, and that could be easier said than done. Cincinnati is one of seven FBS teams that has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. Texas Tech has five rushing scores in the red zone this season and has scored touchdowns on 13 of 21 red zone attempts. Meanwhile, Cincy ranks 14th nationally in red zone defense, allowing just two touchdowns on nine red zone trips from their opponents. The winner of that battle could determine who wins the game.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati 30, Texas Tech 28
Everything in me says that Cincinnati’s first true road test, being a night game in Lubbock, won’t bode well for the Bearcats. But the 2024 season has been wildly unpredictable so far, and with that, I’ve come to expect the unexpected.
Cincinnati’s 34-0 win over Houston is being overlooked my most people because, well, it’s Houston. But the efficiency with which Cincy won that game tells me a story of improvement. Brendan Sorsby has not put the ball in harm’s way all season, with perfect 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio. I think that plays a factor in this game, and in the end, a costly turnover or two from Texas Tech ultimately gives the Bearcats the extra chance they need to win this game.
