Unlike the other major sports of basketball, baseball, and softball, only two teams will get the chance to play for the Big 12 Football Championship in December.
Heading into Week 5, we will assess what we’ve seen through the first four weeks of the 2024 season and start to separate the contenders from the pretenders when it comes to the Big 12 race and, ultimately, the College Football Playoff.
Unlike Power Rankings, which are more prone to changing on a weekly basis, my intent with this weekly feature is to determine who the best five teams in the league are, regardless of their most recent result. Here are the top five teams in the Big 12 and a few squads on the bubble looking in.
1. Utah Utes (4-0)
In Week 4, Utah answered my biggest question about the team: Can they win in this league if Cam Rising isn’t available? In one of the hardest road environments in the Big 12, Isaac Wilson did enough to lead his team to victory, and the Utes’ defense stymied Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman, who was coming off a career performance last week. Additionally, the Utes held Ollie Gordon under 50 yards for the third consecutive week and limited the Pokes to just 285 yards of total offense. By all accounts, Utah’s road trip to Stillwater appeared to be the toughest test on their schedule and they were able to pick up a win without their best player. If Rising returns, there’s no reason why Utah shouldn’t be favored in the rest of their games leading up to the season finale against UCF.
2. UCF Knights (3-0)
Speaking of the Knights, UCF moves up to No. 2 as a by-product of Kansas State’s loss in Week 4. After a bye last week, UCF is gearing up to host Colorado in Week 5. Though it’s still early, UCF ranks first nationally with 375.7 rushing yards per game and RJ Harvey has been one of the most electric players in the country. Plus, it appears KJ Jefferson is starting to build a rapport with Kobe Hudson in the passing game, which would only help the Knights’ lethal rushing attack. It’s still a little nerve-wracking to have UCF this high when the best team they’ve faced is a 2-2 TCU team, especially when they had to erase a 28-7 deficit to win that game. However, I’ll give the immense potential of this squad the benefit of the doubt for now.
3. Kansas State (3-1)
Talk about a clunker. Kansas State strolled into Provo, Utah, as a road favorite and got trounced by BYU, 38-9. Turnovers are the ultimate equalizer in football, and losing that margin 0-3 is a great way to lose a football game. Also, allowing special teams or defensive touchdowns is also in the textbook for “How to lose a road game,” and the Wildcats allowed one of each. In short, there wasn’t much more that could’ve gone wrong for Kansas State last week, and it showed up on the scoreboard. Yes, Avery Johnson is going to have to clean up his mistakes. Yes, the passing game is going to have to prove it can be effective down field. However, all the pieces are still there for this team, and I’m not ready to let one bad game define this team’s season.
4. Iowa State Cyclones (3-0)
There might not be a team out there right now that’s flying under the radar like Matt Campbell’s Cyclones. After beating Iowa in Week 2 and a bye in Week 3, Iowa State came out and thumped Arkansas State, 52-7. ISU enters Week 5 as the No. 18 team in the country and the second-highest-ranked team in the Big 12, trailing only Utah at No. 10. Rocco Becht accounted for three touchdowns last week, and the Iowa State defense continues to be the smothering unit we’ve come to expect. The Cyclones have an excellent chance to keep building momentum in the coming weeks as they face Houston and Baylor before things get a little tougher with a road trip to West Virginia. If they can get to 5-0, there’s a chance their matchup with UCF on October 19 could be a ranked matchup with major Big 12 ramifications.
5. BYU Cougars (4-0)
Nobody, except perhaps the folks in Provo, could have predicted how BYU’s 2024 season would start, but they find themselves at 4-0 heading into Week 5 and ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll. The offense is still shaky under Jake Retzlaff, but the Cougars’ defense has been incredible through four games. BYU ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense (12.75 ppg), and ranks 8th in defensive efficiency. If the offense can find some stability in the passing game, and get healthy at running back, there’s a real chance that the Cougars could be a Big 12 contender.
On The Bubble
Oklahoma State (3-1): The Cowboys rushing attack — which was supposed to be incredible with Ollie Gordon and the most experienced offensive line in college football — ranks 115th nationally with 96.2 yards per game. That’s not going to get it done when your defense ranks 125th in total defense (461.0 ypg). I still think OSU can figure things out, but my concerns are growing by the week.
Cincinnati (3-1): Well, hello there, Bearcats. Cincinnati’s 34-0 win over Houston was impressive and the metrics have them pointing in the right direction. Cincy rose 12 spots to No. 50 in the SP+ and up 19 spots in FPI to No. 47 and is sitting at 3-1. Their one loss, to Pittsburgh (4-0), was the result of a major second-half meltdown. If not for that, they’d likely be knocking on the door of the Top 25.
Texas Tech (3-1): After a 30-22 win over an undefeated Arizona State team, Texas Tech makes its first appearance on the bubble. The loss at Washington State was ugly, but there’s a trend with Joey McGuire teams… the further into the season we get, the better they are. If that is the case in 2024, Texas Tech might be the team everyone counted out too quickly.
