Big 12 Previews

UCF vs. Florida: Prediction, Preview, Betting Odds

By Bryan Clinton

Posted on September 30, 2024

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Week 6 of the college football season is here. UCF football plays Florida, and Heartland College Sports has your game prediction, preview, and betting odds ahead of the matchup.

GAME INFO

Saturday, Oct. 5; 6.45 p.m. (CT); Ben Hill Griffin Stadium; Gainesville, FL

TV: SEC Network

Records: UCF 3-1 (Big 12: 1-1); Florida 2-2 (SEC: 1-1)

Last Week: Colorado 48, UCF 21; Florida idle

Series History: Florida leads, 2-1-0

Last Meeting: UCF Football 29, Florida 17 (2021)

Fun Fact: Outside of Florida State and Miami, UCF’s victory over Florida in 2021 is the only time an in-state opponent has beaten Florida since Stetson did it in 1938.

 

UCF vs. Florida Betting Lines and Odds

Opening Line: UCF (-2.5)

Over/Under: 61.5

Key Players

UCF Knights

RB RJ Harvey

While last week’s outcome was certainly disappointing, UCF running back RJ Harvey continued his hot start to the season by turning 20 touches into 169 all-purpose yards and one score. Colorado was the first team this season to hold Harvey under the 100-yard mark on the ground, as the game script saw him log just 16 carries for 77 yards.

LB Deshawn Pace

The UCF football defense will have to get up off the mat after Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs hung 48 points on them last week, but there are still some players on the roster who are making this unit better than a year ago. Deshawn Pace, the Cincinnati transfer, is the main contributor who fits that criteria, leading the team with 22 tackles and two interceptions, including the only interception forced by the Knights last week.

 

Florida Gators

QB Graham Mertz, DJ Lagway

Florida head coach Billy Napier is utilizing a two-quarterback system after five-star freshman DJ Lagway proved how high his ceiling is as a passer compared to that of incumbent starter Graham Mertz. In the Gators’ last game, Mertz and Lagway combined for 26-of-28 (92.8%, UF single-game record) for 277 yards, while Mertz accounted for four touchdowns (one rushing).

DB Trikweze Bridges

The Gators’ defense has been suspect through the first four games of Florida’s season, but one of the bright spots as of late has been Oregon transfer Trikweze Bridges. In UF’s Week 4 win over Mississippi State, Trikweze posted a career-high and team-leading ten tackles with a forced fumble and a pass breakup. He ranks second on the team coming into this game with 18 tackles on the season.

 

KEY STORYLINES

UCF Knights

Can UCF respond in the right way? Last week’s 48-21 loss to Colorado was probably the most shocking outcome of any game in Big 12 play this season. Everything lined up for UCF to win the game handily, but the Buffaloes had other plans. Four turnovers and 80 yards in penalties were the fatal flaws for the Knights, and if they want to have a chance to beat the Gators in The Swamp, they’ll have to avoid both of those pitfalls.

Florida Gators

Can Florida’s run defense hold up? Coming into this week, Florida owns the 109th-ranked rushing defense (188.8 ypg) in the country. While UCF’s lackluster performance against Colorado only produced 177 yards on the ground, the Knights are still No. 2 in the country with 326.0 yards per game. If Florida can’t find a way to limit this multi-headed rushing attack, the Knights will literally run away with this game.

 

PREDICTION: Florida 34, UCF 30

The UCF running game should be able to find success against a Florida defense that has struggled to find its identity against good competition this year. That alone almost gives me enough confidence to take UCF on the road here.

Unfortunately, there are a few things playing in Florida’s favor. First, the Gators are coming off a much-needed bye week and an impressive road win before that. Florida should be healthy and ready to roll with an extended game plan here. Secondly, this game is in The Swamp and Florida’s fan base is going to be lathered up for a night game against an in-state foe. Finally, UCF just got punched in the mouth but still comes into the game as the betting favorite. If I were Florida, that would piss me off to no end, especially since its in Gainesville.

With Billy Napier coaching for his life and Florida not in a place to overlook this game, I think the Gators find a way to win the game and stay undefeated against the Knights at home.