There were just five Big 12 games and one nonconference tilt in Week 6, but we learned a bit more about the conference race that’s starting to take shape.
We saw a couple of preseason “contenders” continue to flounder and are now 0-3 in Big 12 play. The trend of underdogs winning outright in league play continued, too, proving that this league truly is more “wide” than it is “deep.”
Even though we are six weeks into the season, there are a plethora of outcomes that will inevitably shake up the Big 12 race before December arrives. Nonetheless, we’re here to overreact to what we saw in Week 6, and that’s what we’re going to do.
Stick a Fork In ‘Em, Kansas is Done
Not an Overreaction: You would be hard-pressed to find a fanbase in college football that has dealt with more heartbreak this season than the Kansas Jayhawks. Before the year began, KU fans were looking at 2024 as the season that the Jayhawks finally break through the glass ceiling and compete to win the Big 12. It was supposed to be the year that double-digit wins comes back to the program. That — combined with a renovated stadium being erected in Lawrence — was supposed to point to a brighter horizon for Lance Leipold’s group.
Instead, the Jayhawks have crashed and burned, starting out the year 1-5 and 0-5 against FBS opponents. KU has held a fourth-quarter lead in each loss and has found a way to choke them away. This last loss stings especially bad, too, as Kansas won the turnover battle 2-0 and still came up short. Unless it can go 6-1 over their last seven games, Kansas football is on the verge of heading back to obscurity after a short stint in the spotlight.
Big 12 Games Might As Well Be Coin-Flips
Not an Overreaction: Whoever is in charge of setting the lines for Big 12 football games this season has had quite the task through the first few weeks of league play. While I haven’t had the time to look at the rest of the leagues in college football just yet, the data that the Big 12 has provided through the first 19 games is incredible.
Through the first three weeks of league play, Big 12 underdogs are 11-8-0 against the spread. For those among us who aren’t degenerates, that means that underdogs are either winning or they’re playing games closer than Vegas says they should. While that by itself is mind-boggling, the next stat is, well, ludicrous. Big 12 underdogs, through 19 games, are 10-9 straight up. Yes, you read that correctly —underdogs are winning games more often than they’re losing them in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma State Has To Wake Up at Some Point…
Overreaction: I fancy myself a patient person. As a working-from-home father of a three-year-old and a two-month-old, I spend a good portion of my day practicing patience. However, I am done waiting for Oklahoma State to wake up and start playing good football in 2024.
Despite bringing back 10 of 11 starters on offense, the Pokes can’t get anything going on the ground or through the air — even with the nation’s most experienced offensive line and the reigning Doak Walker award winner in the backfield. Meanwhile, the rush defense has been putrid. West Virginia gashed the Cowboys for 389 yards on the ground, bringing their total rushing yards allowed over three Big 12 games to 939 yards (313 ypg) and a whopping 6.26 yards per carry. Sorry folks, this team has a tall task ahead of it to get to a bowl game, let alone get back in the Big 12 race after a 0-3 start in conference play.
Dave Aranda’s Time in Waco is Up
Not an Overreaction: The further we get away from Baylor’s 12-2 season in 2021, the more it looks like an anomaly. In fact, the numbers would say that Dave Aranda probably isn’t doing that again in Waco, or anywhere else, any time soon. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, Baylor is 5-13 overall and just 2-10 in Big 12 play.
To make matters worse, the last time Baylor beat a Big 12 team at home was Kansas in 2022. That was also the last season that the Bears beat a pre-existing Big 12 team in league play, as their only wins in conference play over the last season and a half have come against UCF and Cincinnati on the road. The unfortunate reality is that things aren’t working between Aranda and Baylor, and that sucks. He’s an incredible guy and the folks in Waco seem to love him. However, he’s there under the hopes that he can recapture the magic of the 2021 season, because outside of that single season, he’s got a 13-27 overall record and an 8-22 record in Big 12 games.
Iowa State Might Be the Favorite…
Not an Overreaction: The immediate push-back that you will receive when you crown Iowa State the “team to beat” in the Big 12 is, “Well, they ain’t played nobody yet!” To that argument, I will concede that Houston and Baylor do appear to be two of the bottom teams in the Big 12. But, I’d also like to add that the Cyclones outscored the Bears and Coogs by a combined total of 63-21.
Additionally, the more the offense seems to settle in for the season, the more that I realize this Iowa State team might have the perfect DNA to win the Big 12. It’s defense is at or near the top of the league in every statistical category, it has an experienced and savvy coaching staff, it’s offense is showing the ability to win games with a balanced attack, and it seems to take care of the football. That makes the Cyclones as much a favorite as anyone in the league right now.
