Everybody’s got it figured out in the preseason. The college football preseason magazines are all confident in their projections, and every fan across the country is feeling hopeful about what their team can accomplish in the weeks and months ahead.
Then, at some point, the scoreboard turns on, and those hopes are affirmed for some and absolutely crushed for others. The best part about college football is you never truly know who will fall on either side of that line until the lights come on.
With every team in the Big 12 halfway through its regular season heading into Week 8, now is a perfect time to take a look at a perfect example of just how unpredictable things are in this league.
Here’s a look at the odds each Big 12 team will make the 2024 College Football Playoff — according to ESPN’s FPI before the season got underway.
Big 12 FPI Chances of Making CFP (August 20, 2024)
| TEAM | CFP CHANCES |
|---|---|
| 1. Kansas | 24.0% |
| 2. Kansas State | 21.4% |
| 3. Arizona | 16.0% |
| 4. Oklahoma State | 12.6% |
| 5. Utah | 12.5% |
| 6. Texas Tech | 11.5% |
| 7. TCU | 9.9% |
| 8. UCF | 9.6% |
| 9. West Virginia | 6.4% |
| 10. Colorado | 5.8% |
| 11. Iowa State | 4.7% |
| 12. Baylor | 2.3% |
| 13. Cincinnati | 0.9% |
| 14. Arizona State | 0.8% |
| 15. BYU | 0.6% |
| 16. Houston | 0.3% |
Looking at this list as we head into Week 8 says two things loud and clear.
First and foremost, there’s not a single person out there that actually knows what’s going to happen before the season. It’s just educated guessing — unless you set lines for Vegas. Those guys still know somehow.
Secondly, the Big 12 is undoubtedly the most unpredictable league in college football. We’ve seen preseason favorites fall to 0-3 in league play and teams that were picked to finish dead last enter Week 8 with a 5-1 record. Big 12 football is always drunk, but this year, it’s hammered and headed toward a total blackout situation.
Just take a look at how much the College Football Playoff chances have changed after the first seven weeks of action.
Every Big 12 Team’s Chances of Making CFP (August 20, 2024)
Big 12 FPI Chances of Making CFP (October 17, 2024)
| TEAM | CFP CHANCES | ORIGINAL | CHANGE (RK) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Iowa State | 53.4% | 4.7% | +48.7% (↑ 10) |
| 2. BYU | 32.9% | 0.6% | +32.3% (↑ 13) |
| 3. Kansas State | 23.6% | 21.4% | +2.2% (↓ 1) |
| 4. Texas Tech | 6.7% | 11.5% | -4.8% (↑ 2) |
| 5. Arizona State | 3.9% | 0.8% | +3.1% (↑ 9) |
| 6. Colorado | 3.6% | 5.8% | -2.2% (↑ 4) |
| 7. Cincinnati | 1.7% | 0.9% | +0.6% (↑ 6) |
| 8. West Virginia | 1.4% | 6.4% | -3.0% (↑ 1) |
| 9. Utah | 0.8% | 12.5% | -5.6% (↓ 4) |
| 10. UCF | 0.2% | 9.6% | -9.4% (↓ 3) |
| 11. TCU | 0.2% | 9.9% | -9.9% (↓ 4) |
| 12. Arizona | 0.1% | 16.0% | -15.9% (↓ 9) |
| 13. Oklahoma State | 0.1% | 12.6% | -12.5% (↓ 9) |
| 14. Baylor | 0.0% | 2.3% | -2.3% (↓ 2) |
| 15. Houston | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3 (↑ 1) |
| 16. Kansas | 0.0% | 24.0% | -24.0% (↓ 16) |
