We’re over halfway through the 2024 college football season and right at the halfway point for Big 12 play and have one hell of a conference race on our hands.
BYU and Iowa State are in the lead right now with 4-0 records in league play, but a quartet of 3-1 teams is just behind them, waiting for an opportunity.
Before the season started, the Heartland College Sports staff gave you their picks for who they thought would win the 2024 Big 12 Championship.
Spoiler Alert: All five of us had Utah making it to Arlington…
A lot has changed in the first eight weeks of the season, though, so it’s time to update those predictions in this week’s roundtable. Which two teams play in the 2024 Big 12 Championship, and who wins the league?
Pete Mundo: Kansas State def. Iowa State
I know they play each other at the end of the season, but if Kansas State wins that game, I can see the rematch in Arlington, with both teams having one loss on the season. K-State is getting better and more confident each week. And yes, this would also require BYU to drop two games down the stretch.
The next four games: UCF, Utah, Kansas and Arizona State isn’t a gauntlet, but three of them are on the road, one is a huge rival, and KU may be playing its best football after a tough start to the season. I like BYU, but I could see a trip up or two during this stretch, which opens the door for K-State, who BYU obviously has the head-to-head against.
Bryan Clinton: Kansas State def. BYU
This race is going to be crazy by the end of November and I am all here for it. Heading into Week 9, there seems to be three teams out front in the Big 12 race with Iowa State, BYU, and Kansas State just a hair above the rest of the league. All three of those teams have a relatively manageable schedule remaining, with the Cyclones and Wildcats biggest remaining test being their head-to-head matchup in Ames on the last week of the year.
Here’s where things will get fun. I’m going to guess that BYU drops one game between now and the end of the year, putting them at 11-1 (8-1 Big 12). Iowa State goes undefeated into their clash with Kansas State – who also wins the rest of its games leading up to that game – setting up a massive play-in situation. However, this particular situation gets tricky when the Cyclones lose the game and fall to 11-1 (8-1). When all the chips fall, we have a three-way tie for first place in the league as BYU, Iowa State, and Kansas State all finish with 11-1 (8-1 Big 12) records.
Kansas State has a win over Iowa State, and BYU has a win over Kansas State, but Iowa State didn’t beat either of them, so the Cyclones get left out of the Big 12 title game – but not the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, K-State gets the chance to avenge their only loss of the year and does just that, beating BYU in Arlington to win another Big 12 title and advance to the CFP. The loss, unfortunately, pushes BYU out of the CFP race, as they end up No. 13 in the final poll.
Matthew Postins: Kansas State def. BYU
What’s great about this race is that as we enter this weekend, six teams are either undefeated in league play or have a loss. That’s going to make for a great race down the stretch, and I wouldn’t rule out a two-loss team making it. To start the year, I had Utah and Kansas State get to Arlington. I’ll stick with K-State, and I like their path because they control their own destiny. This includes a season finale against Iowa State that could determine who gets one of the title game berths.
I’ll take BYU for the other berth. I’m not of the belief that the Cougars will go undefeated in Big 12 play. But they have the win over Kansas State, which helps them with the tiebreaker. Assuming the Cougars only take one loss down the stretch, they’ll make it.Â
