Every year, October serves as the time in college football when the contenders begin to separate from the pretenders. With November on the doorstep, we’ve gotten a good look at the Big 12 and who might be in Arlington at the end of the year to compete for a league title.
The initial College Football Playoff rankings are set to be released on Tuesday, November 5, and after nine weeks of football, there are at least four Big 12 teams who appear primed to be among the first list of ranked teams.
This past weekend was another data point, but also another microcosm of what the Big 12 has been all season long: incredibly unpredictable and outrageously entertaining.
We kept up with everything that happened in a wild Week 9, and here are some of the biggest takeaways from Saturday’s action.
Winner: Colorado’s Big 12 Title Chances
We’re headed into the final month of the 2024 season and one of the biggest storylines in college football is still Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes. However, this time isn’t about his unorthodox offseason approach or issues within the locker room — it’s the fact that Colorado is a good football team and right in the thick of the Big 12 race.
After their 34-23 win over Cincinnati (5-3, 3-2) this past weekend, the Buffs are now 6-2 (4-1 Big 12) and up to No. 23 in the latest AP Poll. The win was monumental for Coach Prime’s program for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, it got the Buffs to bowl eligibility, which is an incredible feat considering Sanders inherited a 1-11 football team two seasons ago.
Secondly, it moved the Buffaloes into a tie for third place in the Big 12 standings with just four games remaining and set them up for a legitimate run at Arlington. CU’s remaining schedule is:
- @ Texas Tech (Nov. 9)
- vs. Utah (Nov. 16)
- @ Kansas (Nov. 23)
- vs. Oklahoma State (Nov. 29)
The Buffaloes should be favored in every one of those games, and if they should get to the end of the year with a 10-2 (8-1 Big 12) record, there’s a great chance that they’re one of two teams in Arlington. They will need some help though.
Their loss to Kansas State (7-1, 4-1) gives the Wildcats the head-to-head advantage in a tiebreaker, while both Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) and BYU (5-0) are ahead of them with no losses. They’ll need to have the teams ahead of them fall somewhere along the way, but that’s not unlikely, given the nature of this conference. For now, though, the Buffs need to keep winning football games.
Loser: BYU Doubters
I never understood how BYU was going into Orlando as a 2.5-point underdog, but when kickoff time rolled around on Saturday afternoon, that’s exactly what happened.
However, for what seems like the 100th time this season, the Cougars made fools of the line-setters in Vegas and thumped UCF, 37-24. The final score in this game suggests that it was competitive, but in reality, it was pretty much all BYU from the start. The Cougars had a 34-10 lead with 9:14 remaining in the contest and gave up garbage time touchdown with less than a minute to go.
BYU held the ball for 40:28 and churned out 29 first downs and 483 yards of offense, scoring 34+ points for the sixth-consecutive time and seventh time in eight games. Meanwhile, the defense held UCF to just 2-10 on third downs and forced two interceptions on the day.
While there are no guarantees in the Big 12, it’s hard to look at BYU’s schedule and not see a 10+ win season on the horizon.
- @ Utah (Nov. 9)
- vs. Kansas (Nov. 16)
- @ Arizona State (Nov. 23)
- vs. Houston (Nov. 30)
Right now, it appears the Cougars might have a one-game cushion in the Big 12 race, too, as they’ve already got a win over Kansas State and would take the tie-breaker in that scenario. No matter how you slice it, BYU is sitting pretty heading into the final month of the season.
Winner: TCU in Crunch Time
After a 35-34 loss to UCF and a 66-42 loss at SMU put TCU at 2-2 overall, it appeared that the Horned Frogs might be headed toward another disappointing season. Then, after getting things right momentarily against Kansas with a 38-27 win, the Frogs hit another speed bump with a 30-19 loss against Houston.
However, over the last two weeks, we’ve seen some resilience from Sonny Dykes’ group, and despite being two games back in the Big 12 race, the Horned Frogs look like a team that might be starting to find its identity.
Last week’s 13-7 win over Utah was the definition of gritty, but their comeback win over a Behren Morton-less Texas Tech on Saturday felt like a tipping point for the better. The Horned Frogs were staring at 4-4 as they faced a 31-14 deficit with less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. That’s when the Frogs found their rhythm.
TCU would score touchdowns on their next three drives, going 75 yards on back-to-back possessions and then taking the lead with an 84-yard touchdown from Eric McAlister with 5:10 remaining in the game. The Frogs’ defense did its part as well, forcing a fumble on Texas Tech’s next possession, and then left the Red Raiders with no time on their final possession, securing the 35-34 victory.
The Horned Frogs would need a lot of help to get to Arlington at this point, but a bowl game feels all but certain after such a horrendous start.
Loser: Oklahoma State’s Bowl Chances
Oklahoma State has been one of the most consistent winners in college football over the last two decades, dating back to the moment that Mike Gundy took over the program. In his 20th season with the program, Gundy has led the Cowboys to a 169-84 overall record and has taken the Pokes to a bowl game every year aside from his first in 2005.
That 18-year bowl streak, however, is in real danger as Oklahoma State enters its final four games of the 2024 season. OSU’s trip to Waco on Saturday ended in a 38-28 loss to Baylor, who kept their bowl hopes alive with their fourth win of the season. As a result, the Bears might’ve also ensured that Oklahoma State misses the postseason altogether.
The Pokes will enter November without a win in Big 12 play for the first time since 2005 and will have to win three of their final four games just to get to a bowl game.
Their remaining schedule, however, doesn’t appear to be very forgiving:
- vs. Arizona State (Nov. 2)
- @ TCU (Nov. 9)
- vs. Texas Tech (Nov. 23)
- @ Colorado (Nov. 29)
Winning even one of those games would be a tall task for the team we’ve seen over the last several weeks, let alone winning three of four. There’s a very real chance that OSU will be an underdog in all of them, and with a combined record of 12-5 in Big 12 play, every one of those teams has at least five wins on the season thus far.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Gundy to pull a rabbit out of a hat here, but the odds certainly aren’t in his favor.
Winner: Willie Fritz and Houston Football
Houston wasn’t supposed to beat anyone on their conference schedule and after being outscored 54-0 in their first two Big 12 games, it looked like that would probably be the case.
But Willie Fritz and his team didn’t back down. They didn’t chalk it up to a lost season and decide they should just start working toward next year. In true Fritz fashion, the Coogs head coach laced up his boots and lead his team into the fire with a clear vision.
Over the course of his tenure at Tulane, we’ve seen Willie Fritz’s teams compete with more talented teams because they’ve been able to muck things up and win games in rock fights. During his first year at Houston, that’s exactly what we’ve seen.
Sure, 3-5 (2-3 Big 12) isn’t something that most programs would write home about, but the roster and program that Fritz inherited wasn’t ready to compete in the Big 12 in the slightest. However, the Coogs have gone 2-1 in the last three weeks and they’ve won games by being better at the fundamentals.
The talent isn’t there for UH to compete for a Big 12 title right now, and a bowl game probably isn’t in the cards this year. However, this week’s 17-14 win over Utah was a staple victory for Fritz in 2024, and should be taken as a sign for what could become of the program in future seasons.
Getting Fritz to leave the Green Wave and come to Houston was one of the most underrated moves of the offseason, and wins like that are foundational for what he’s building long-term.
