Big 12 Football Tiebreaker Scenarios: What to Know Entering November

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The 2024 Big 12 Championship race is in full swing, and heading into Week 10, it looks like we’re set for a photo finish.

Iowa State and BYU enter the month of November with undefeated records in Big 12 play, while Kansas State and Colorado each carry a 4-1 mark into the final stretch. Behind them, a slew of two-loss teams are just waiting for their opportunity.

With 16 teams in the conference, and five weeks left in the season, we’re going to see some teams finish dead-locked in a tie. Last year, we saw a near-nightmare scenario at the end of Big 12 play and there was a lot of drama surrounding how the tiebreaker process would play out.

 

So, surely we have a more clearly defined process for crowning a champion this season, right? Let’s take a look at the policies, as first reported by ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

At the beginning of the 2024 season, the Big 12 announced the steps it will use to determine the top two teams if there is a tie.

Related: Big 12 Bowl Projections: New Teams, New Matchups in Week 10 Lookahead

Big 12 Tiebreaker Policies (2024)

1. The tied teams will be compared based on their head-to-head record during the season.
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2. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against all common conference opponents.
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3. The tied teams will be compared based on win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference) proceeding through the standings.
   • (or)
4. The tied teams will be compared based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents.
   • (or)
5. The tied teams will be compared based on total number of wins in a 12-game season.
   • (or)
6. The representative will be chosen based on highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team rating score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
   • (or)
7. The representative will be chosen by a coin toss.

 

So, What Will it Look Like?

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for the top four teams in the conference standings ahead of November, as well as their projected record at the end of the season.

 

In this scenario, the final standings would look like this:

Projected Big 12 Standings

1. BYU Cougars | 11-1 (8-1)
T-2. Iowa State Cyclones | 10-2 (7-2)
T-2. Kansas State Wildcats | 10-2 (7-2)
T-2. Colorado Buffaloes | 9-3 (7-2)

BYU would automatically get the top seed in the standings here as the only team with an 8-1 record in league play.

The tiebreakers would have to come into play to send the two-seed to Arlington. Iowa State, Kansas State, and Colorado are all tied for second with 7-2 records.

 

If Kansas State were to win the matchup in Ames, the Wildcats would have the clear advantage in a tiebreaker as they’d have wins over both Colorado and Iowa State. However, if Iowa State were to drop two other games and beat K-State, it gets more complicated.

Since Colorado and Iowa State won’t face each other, the first criteria wouldn’t work to break the tie, sending us to the second tiebreaker.

In this hypothetical case, Iowa State would have to drop two games before beating K-State, and the next most likely loss would be at Kansas. That would serve as a tiebreaker, separating K-State and Colorado from the Cyclones with both of them having wins (hypothetically) over the Jayhawks. Then, in that case, K-State would move on with its head-to-head win over the Buffs.

Tiebreakers are never pretty, and someone is going to end up feeling that they got the short end of the stick. However, this is at least much clearer than the picture that we got last year. Will it come down to this? Who knows — I’m not totally sold that Iowa State will drop two games between now and December, but anything could happen.

Either way, the race to Arlington is going to be one to remember. The Big 12 Championship Game is set Saturday, Dec. 7 at 11 a.m. CT from AT&T Stadium on ABC.