Week 10 is already here, and the Big 12 has several storylines to follow as the race to Arlington heats up.
There are just five weeks left in the regular season and the margin of error is as thin as ever. There are four teams that are right in the thick of the Big 12 race, but as we’ve seen all season long, anything can happen from week to week.
There are just five games on the docket this weekend, with six of the league’s teams having a bye. Everything on paper suggests that this weekend should be relatively quiet, and outside of TCU-Baylor, there’s not a line under a field goal. However, that probably means we’re setting up for another chaotic week of games.
Here are the top storylines from around the league that you’ll want to follow along with during the action.
Is Iowa State on Upset Alert?
Nothing would suggest that they should be when you consider how poorly Texas Tech has played over the last two weeks. With that being said, this game does feel a bit more trick than some would have you think. Yes, the Red Raiders have some quarterback issues coming into this week as Behren Morton’s health is a concern. However, I’m thinking that might play into the game plan that Texas Tech would try and implement anyways, and here’s why.
As surprising as it might be, Iowa State ranks second-to-last in the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing 170.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is averaging 168.9 yards per game on the ground and has one of the best running backs in the country in Tahj Brooks. Brooks has eclipsed 100 yards in every game that he’s played this season, and he’ll likely be the focal point of their offensive attack this week, especially if Morton is out. I’m not picking Tech to pull off the upset, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the favorites to win the Big 12 tripped up here.
Can UCF Bust the Slump?
There might not be a team in the country that needs a win worse than UCF right now. The Knights are on a five-game losing streak and have looked nothing like the team they were expected to be at the beginning of the year. Amid changes at quarterback and several other positions, the Knights are also switching up play-calling duties and got rid of their defensive coordinator this week.
Their first chance to prove that those adjustments can spark positive change is this week against a struggling Arizona team. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan haven’t been able to keep this team afloat with injuries piling up and turnovers becoming an issue. If UCF is going to find a way to make a bowl game, it has to start this weekend. If they don’t, it might be time to start looking at Gus Malzahn’s seat.
Gundy’s Last Stand?
The 2024 season has been a complete disaster for Oklahoma State. If it weren’t for a double-overtime win against Arkansas, there wouldn’t be a single victory over a Power Four team, and their best win would be against FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. As the only team in the Big 12 without a win in league play, the Pokes have officially found a new low under Mike Gundy.
All of that aside, Oklahoma State will host Arizona State this weekend and feels like it’s backed into a corner. A loss to the Sun Devils would mean OSU would have to go undefeated in their last three games against TCU, Texas Tech, and Colorado. Arizona State comes into this game at 5-2 (2-2) and is looking to get to bowl eligibility and keep pace in the Big 12. Will the Pokes fall to 0-6 against Big 12 opponents, or can Gundy pull off another signature upset?
The Revivalry
Last year, Baylor and TCU formally named their long-standing rivalry the “Bluebonnet Battle,” and even had a trophy made — albeit one that looks like the product of an eighth-grade shop class project. Nonetheless, I refuse to call this game anything other than it’s rightful name, “The Revivalry.” A few weeks ago, this game looked like it might be a snoozer, but now, it’s arguably the best Big 12 game of the weekend.
Both Baylor and TCU carry two-game winning streaks into this game. The Bears have found themselves offensively under Jake Spavital, while TCU has had a couple of nail-biters go their way thanks to some complementary football. It’s not the ranked vs. ranked matchup it was a decade ago, but there’s still plenty on the line here. A win for Baylor puts them at 5-4 and 3-3 in Big 12 play, while a TCU victory means bowl eligibility and a 4-2 record in league play. While the trophy might not be something to get too excited about, winning a third straight game in this league would warrant celebration for sure.
