Well, we thought we had a very good idea on what two teams would be in the Big 12 Championship on December 7. This time, a week ago, things felt pretty clear.
BYU and Iowa State were both undefeated and clearly controlled their own destiny. Kansas State had just one loss and looked in control of its destiny, too, with a win over Colorado and a season-ending clash with the Cyclones serving as a de facto play-in game.
The initial College Football Playoff rankings are set to be released on Tuesday, November 5, and after the chaos that we just witnessed in Week 10, there is no telling where the Big 12 will stand.
Aside from BYU, who was fortunate to have a bye week amidst the anarchy, it’s not all that easy to guess how the Big 12 will stack up. While there were certainly some big losers this weekend, there were some teams that have a window of opportunity that they didn’t have before. Let’s take a look at the biggest winners and losers from Saturday’s action.
Winner: Texas Tech’s Big 12 Title Game Chances
Last week, it felt like there was just a slight glimmer of hope for anyone outside of BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, or Colorado making the Big 12 Championship Game. All four of those schools had relatively manageable games left on the docket, and the most difficult ones were against one another — most notably Iowa State vs. Kansas State on Thanksgiving weekend.
However, the first weekend of November might’ve blown the door open for a two-loss team to get right back in this thing — most notably Texas Tech (6-3, 4-2).
After a 23-22 win over Iowa State, TTU is in a better spot to make it to Arlington than most realize. The Red Raiders now have the head-to-head tiebreaker over ISU, and with Kansas State still on the schedule, the Cyclones are far from a guarantee to hang onto their one-game lead for the next three weeks.
The Red Raiders also host Colorado (6-2, 4-1) this week, and would automatically put themselves in a tie for third place at worst with a loss. From there, the Red Raiders have a bye week and then face Oklahoma State in Stillwater and host West Virginia to close out the season.
If Joey McGuire and Co. can run the table, they’ll be right in the thick of things come the final week of the season, and with one more loss for Iowa State, they could sneak into Arlington before anyone even realizes it.
Loser: Big 12 Getting Multiple CFP Bids
While nothing is a guarantee in this league, the Big 12 had better hope that BYU and Iowa State run the table the rest of the way and have the Cyclones edge the Cougars in a tightly-contested game in Arlington to win the Big 12 title. Otherwise, I just don’t see a path where the league has a prayer of getting two teams into the College Football Playoff.
BYU and Iowa State were the two Big 12 teams capable of grabbing an at-large bid heading into this weekend. Both teams could run the table in the regular season and the loser still would’ve probably made the College Football Playoff as an at-large team.
However, after Iowa State’s loss, the league’s margin for error is razor-thin. Kansas State and Colorado both have two losses already, and even if they win out and win the Big 12 title, are either of them guaranteed to be ranked higher at the end of the year than Boise State? The Broncos’ only loss this season is a 37-34 loss at No. 1 Oregon and they’re already No. 12 in the AP Poll.
Would an 11-2 Kansas State or Colorado be ranked higher than a 12-1 Boise State at the end of the season? If they aren’t, Boise would get the No. 4 seed as one of the highest-ranked conference champions, and the Big 12 winner would then get an auto-bid among the other at-large teams.
A two-loss Big 12 team is not getting into the playoff unless they’re the Big 12 Champion, and now that everyone but BYU has at least one loss, there’s just not a great chance that more than one team has the resume to win a head-to-head debate with fringe teams from conferences like the Big Ten or SEC.
Winner: College Football Sickos
If you watch ever single college football game and pray for chaos every week — i.e. a College Football Sicko — you won big with the Big 12 this weekend.
Two teams in the league entered as underdogs of 13 points or more, and both of them won outright. The Big 12 race, which looked like it was realistically down to four teams, suddenly is an eight-team race with just four weeks left.
Oklahoma State (3-6), Arizona (3-6), and Kansas (2-6) — three of the top five teams in the Big 12 Preseason Poll — will have to win out just to get to a bowl game. Add Utah into the mix with those three teams, and you’ve got a combined record in Big 12 play of 3-19.
Meanwhile, the bottom five teams in the preseason poll (Arizona State, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, and Baylor) are 17-10 in Big 12 play and are a combined 6-1 over the last two weeks.
In fact, two of those teams are bowl eligible (Arizona State, BYU), two need just one more win (Baylor, Cincinnati), and Houston needs just two more wins after taking down the top two teams in the preseason poll in back-to-back weeks.
This league is literally made for sickos.
Loser: Oklahoma State’s Bowl Streak
Oklahoma State’s 18-year bowl streak, however, is officially on life support.
The Cowboys have been one of the most consistent winners in college football since Mike Gundy took over the program in 2005. Gundy has a 169-85 overall record through 20 seasons and hasn’t missed a bowl game since his first year. This year might be his worst to date, however.
The Pokes haven’t won a single game in Big 12 play, going 0-6 to this point, and have just three games left on the schedule: at TCU (5-4), vs. Texas Tech (6-3), and at Colorado (6-2).
I wouldn’t pick Oklahoma State to win any of those games right now, let alone all three of them. And after what I saw in their 42-21 blowout loss to Arizona State, I’d feel pretty confident in saying that they’re starting to pack things up.
Right now, it appears Gundy is staring a 3-9 season in the face, and that would have to force him to make some major staff changes at the very least. Would it be enough to put his job in jeopardy? Probably not, but things would be as uncomfortable as they’ve been during his tenure in Stillwater.
Winner: Willie Fritz and Houston Football (Pt. 2)
Last week, I mentioned Houston as one of the biggest winners after their 17-14 win over Utah. Taking down a team like Utah, even in a down year, was huge for the Cougars. After all, they are in a rebuild of their own in Willie Fritz’s first year.
However, it took just one week for Fritz’s team to outdo themselves, and with a 24-19 win over No. 17 Kansas State, the Coogs are starting to look like a team that just might have a chance at a bowl berth after winning three of their last four games.
It won’t be easy as Houston finishes up its season against Arizona, Baylor, and BYU, but with what we’ve seen from them over the last two weeks, there’s no telling what will happen.
While the immediate impact of these wins is certainly something to take into account, the long-term impact is really what is being driven home for me.
Willie Fritz turned Tulane into one of the best G5 programs in the country before leaving to come to Houston, and now, he’s showing that he can win games in this league before he even gets established. The Cougars have a proud football tradition and have been lying dormant for a couple of years, but the folks in H-Town have all kinds of passion for UH.
This thing is starting to get rolling earlier than it was supposed to, and if Houston does end up finding their way to 6-6 this season, it might be time to start looking at them as not only one of the stories of the year, but a team to be wary of going forward.
Everyone knew that Fritz could turn Houston into a winner, but the biggest question was how long would it take. Apparently, not that long.
