Somehow, Week 12 of the 2024 college football season is here, and after the pandemonium that we witnessed in Week 11, it’s fair to wonder what’s in store down the stretch.
There are six games on the slate for Week 12, with one on Friday, November 15, and the other five on Saturday, November 16.
It’s been a chaotic season thus far, with underdogs dominating through the first 11 weeks — going 29-20-1 against the spread and 22-28 straight up.
This week, the average line in Big 12 games is right under 5.0 points, with three of the six games having lines of 3.0 points or less. Here’s who will win each game, why they’ll win, and what our predicted final score is.
Houston (4-5, 3-3) at Arizona (3-6, 1-5)
Friday, Nov. 15 | 9:15 PM (CT) | FS1 | Arizona Stadium; Tucson, AZ | ARIZ (-1.0)
These two teams had quite a variance in expectations coming into the year, and both of them have been rather surprising down the stretch. For Arizona, this has been an incredibly frustrating season as they’ve dropped five games in a row, and it looks like they’ll miss a bowl game. Meanwhile, Houston came into the season picked to finish last in the league and could end up sneaking into a bowl game if they can win two of their last three games. With the Coogs and Wildcats heading in separate directions, I’m rolling with the hot hand – broken fingers and all.
HOU 24, ARIZ 21
Utah (4-5, 1-5) at 18 Colorado (7-2, 5-1)
Saturday, Nov. 16 | 11:00 AM (CT) | FOX | Folsom Field; Boulder, CO | COLO (-10.0)
Not many people could’ve guessed Utah would come into this game with a 1-5 record in Big 12 play, while Colorado checks in at 5-1. Colorado carries the No. 2 passing offense (320.2 ypg) in the Big 12 into this game, while Utah ranks second in the league in passing defense (175.0 ypg), so this could end up being a closer game than it looks on paper. With that being said, Colorado’s defense leads the Big 12 in sacks (3.22 per game) and ranks second in tackles for loss (7.11 per game). On top of that, the Buffs rank third in the league in turnover margin (0.78), while Utah is 14th (-0.78). I’ll take the Buffaoles in this one.
COLO 29, UTAH 17
Baylor (5-4, 3-3) at West Virginia (5-4, 4-2)
Sat, Nov. 16 | 3:00 PM (CT) | ESPN2 | Milan Puskar Stadium; Morgantown, WV | BAY (-2.5)
This line is incredibly interesting considering how important this game is for both programs. Baylor will be favored on the road in Morgantown coming out of their bye week, while West Virginia just upset Cincinnati to pick up their fifth win of the season. The winner of this game locks themselves into a bowl, while the loser will have just two more chances to get to six wins. Both coaches desperately need this one, but I like where the Baylor offense is headed right now a little bit more than I do West Virginia’s.
BAY 31, WVU 28
Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) at 20 Kansas State (7-2, 4-2)
Sat, Nov. 16 | 6:00 PM (CT) | ESPN | Bill Snyder Family Stadium; Manhattan, KS | KSU (-9.0)
This appears to be the Big 12 Game of the Week on paper, but a quick look at the line would suggest it might be one-sided. Kansas State is a nine-point favorite as of Tuesday afternoon, and the line has actually gone up since it released on Sunday at K-State (-8.5). Kenny Dillingham’s team has been tough all season long, and there’s a half-decent chance that Cam Skattebo is able to get back on the field this week. If he can, it would significantly improve ASU’s chances of pulling off the upset.
KSU 30, ASU 27
Cincinnati (5-4, 3-3) at Iowa State (7-2, 4-2)
Sat, Nov. 16 | 7:00 PM (CT) | FOX | Jack Trice Stadium; Ames, IA | ISU (-9.0)
A few weeks ago, Cincinnati was 5-2 and looking like a darkhorse Big 12 contender, while Iowa State was a perfect 7-0 and looked destined for a trip to Arlington. Fast forward to today and both teams carry a two-game losing streak into this contest, and someone’s got to lose their third in a row. Iowa State’s defense has been torched a couple of times in the last few weeks, and Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby is capable of doing it again. However, this feels like a must-win game for Matt Campbell’s group, which I feel is the better football team despite their flaws.
ISU 33, CIN 24
Kansas (3-6, 2-4) at 7 BYU (9-0, 6-0)
Sat, Nov. 16 | 9:15 PM (CT) | ESPN | LaVell Edwards Stadium; Provo, UT | BYU (-3.0)
If you’re a bettor looking at this game and salivating at BYU being favored by only three points, I urge you to place your bets cautiously — this game is going to be tricky. Kansas has caught fire offensively as Jalon Daniels is playing like his former self, and Devin Neal has found a groove. In fact, if this game were in Kansas City, I’d probably take the Jayhawks to win in an upset. However, a night game in Provo presents its own set of challenges, and despite one heck of a fight from KU, I think the Cougars find a way to get to 10-0.
BYU 28, KU 27
