The Big 12 Conference is getting set for Week 12, when the league will play six games, one on Friday (Houston vs. Arizona) and five on Saturday. There are several teams still in the Big 12 race as we head down the home stretch of the season with three weeks left in the regular season.
But who is on upset alert? Here are my upset meters on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being “little concern of an upset” to 10 being a “serious upset potential”.
BYU vs. Kansas
Upset Alert Meter: 9
The BYU Cougars are the favorite, but need to be very careful in this spot. Kansas is playing its best football of the season and is a Jalon Daniels fumble away from winning three in a row vs. solid competition in Houston, K-State and Iowa State. Meanwhile, BYU was struggled as of late, barely beating Oklahoma State and Utah, two Big 12 bottom feeders. This could be problematic for the Cougars and they can’t afford to overlook Kansas on Saturday after a highly-emotional game at Utah last weekend.
Related: Who Will Win Each Big 12 Football Game In Week 12?
Arizona vs. Houston
Upset Alert Meter: 9
Houston is only a one-point underdog at Arizona, but frankly, Houston arguably deserves to be a favorite in this game. Arizona is playing some of the worst football in college football and last time out got blasted at UCF, a game that saw them play their worst game in two years, according to Pro Football Focus‘ data. Houston keeps getting better and more confident under Willie Fritz. That’s a dangerous combination.
West Virginia vs. Baylor
Upset Alert Meter: 6
Baylor is the road favorite here, which might make WVU an enticing play in Morgantown. But we cannot overlook a Baylor team that is also starting to hit its stride midseason and has had a week off to come off their high from beating their rival TCU. They’ll have the fresher legs and, according to Dave Aranda, are the healthiest they’ve been all season. West Virginia beat Cincinnati, but needed some boneheaded plays by Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby to make it happen.
Related: BYU Secures Two-Seed in the Latest Big 12 Bowl Projections
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati
Upset Alert Meter: 6
Iowa State has lost two in a row, but the Cyclones run game has been their weak spot, and Cincinnati doesn’t come into Ames with the best rushing attack in the Big 12 (11th in Big 12 play). Also, Cincinnati seems to be improving, but I am not convinced they’re ready to walk into Ames, vs. an Iowa State team that is hyper-focused having lost two straight, and beat the Cyclones, who are big favorites.
Colorado vs. Utah
Upset Alert Meter: 5
Utah stinks and is really banged up, but… they know Colorado from their Pac-12 days. Kyle Whittingham is still a great coach with a very good staff, and I would not discount his guys treating this game as their “Super Bowl” since the Utes season is all but lost. Colorado is the better team and playing some of the best football in the country, but there is guaranteed to be a totally unexpected upset down the stretch of the Big 12 season. I don’t think this is it, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
Related: Who are the Top 5 Big 12 College Football Teams in Week 12?
Kansas State vs. Arizona State
Upset Alert Meter: 3
Kansas State lost to Houston last time out and has had a bye week to mull it over. Now they’re home vs. Arizona State, who had to comeback to beat UCF, but needed some nice special teams plays, and turnovers, to pull off the victory. Those are mistakes Kansas State doesn’t make, and I have a hard time seeing the Sun Devils going on the road, even with Cam Skattebo reportedly planning to play, and beating the Cats in Manhattan.
