There’s not a lot of season left, and the Big 12 Championship race is coming down to the wire.
With just three weeks until Championship Weekend, the BYU Cougars (9-0) and Colorado Buffaloes (7-2) are the only two teams that control their own destiny, while a group of four other schools still have a shot at making it to Arlington.
This year, winning a Big 12 Championship means a little more than it did in previous seasons, as that team will get an automatic bid into the 12-team College Football Playoff. However, could the Big 12 runner-up find their way into the field, too? Or, will the playoff committee take a three-loss team from the Big Ten or SEC, as is already being lobbied for by ESPN?
The Heartland College Sports staff discusses in this week’s roundtable: Can the Big 12 get two teams into the College Football Playoff?
Pete Mundo: Yes, But No
CAN the Big 12 get two teams into the College Football Playoff? Sure. Do I think they will? No.
The only path is for an undefeated BYU to lose a close Big 12 Championship Game. But even then, the committee might not view the Cougars’ schedule favorably, especially given their bias towards the SEC and Big Ten.
But I don’t think it will matter because I do not see the BYU Cougars going undefeated in the regular season. Saturday vs. Kansas is a tough match up. Then, there’s Arizona State and Houston, who are both punching way above their weight class this season. BYU has played with fire at times in recent weeks, and while I firmly believe they make the Big 12 Championship Game, I don’t think it will be with a 12-0 record, which means there’s no chance of two Big 12 teams in the Playoff this season.
Bryan Clinton: They Can, But…
Things will have to play out just right. The most realistic shot that the league has of landing two teams in the 12-team field is to have BYU run the table through the regular season and enter the Big 12 Championship Game as an undefeated 12-0 team. If they can do that, there’s virtually no way that the committee could keep them out, especially if SMU find a way into the ACC Championship Game.
The next thing that needs to happen is that one of the league’s 7-2 teams go undefeated the rest of the way and finish the regular season at 10-2. Those teams include Colorado, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Arizona State.
Arizona State is out of the equation if BYU goes undefeated, as the Cougars and Sun Devils will play next week in Tempe, so they’re out. Iowa State fell out of the Top 25 after their second consecutive loss, and even if they did run the table, I’m not confident they can make up enough ground to be a Top 15 team by the end of the month. So, that leaves us with No. 16 Kansas State and No. 17 Colorado.
K-State has a loss to BYU already, but would have wins over Colorado and Iowa State if they went 10-2. Meanwhile, Colorado has the easiest path of the three teams and will earn a Big 12 Championship appearance if they win out since they currently have a 5-1 record in Big 12 play. If either one of those teams were to get to 10-2 and then beat a top-five BYU team to win the Big 12, I think they’d be ranked high enough to be the No. 4 seed in the Playoff. That, plus BYU being 12-1, would give the league enough wiggle room to get two in.
Matthew Postins: Probably Not…
I’d say there’s about a 15% chance that they can do it. Let’s approach it like this. Any power conference team with ten or more wins should be considered first. Chances are, if a team reaches the conference title game, that team will either have 10 wins or will get to 10 with a win.
BYU will get to 10 wins. The tricky part is whether any of the 7-2 teams will get to 10 wins. Some definitely won’t. Iowa State and Kansas State play each other. Arizona State plays Kansas State and BYU. Colorado has the best shot to get to 10 wins of the 7-2 teams. Any Big 12 team needs that before it gets to Arlington, in my opinion.
If we’re being realistic, BYU needs to go undefeated in the regular season, one of the four 7-2 teams needs to get to 10 wins and then that team needs to beat BYU in a close affair, much like K-State and TCU two years ago. Then, you have to count on the committee backing up its word that it won’t punish teams for conference championship game losses.
The Big 12’s biggest problem is perception. Because the SEC has won so much on the big stage, it gets the benefit of the doubt in these situations, hence the nine-win debate you keep hearing about. The Big 12 doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt, which is why, realistically, it has a narrow needle to thread to get two teams in.
Derek Duke: Yes, There’s a Path.
As crazy as it sounds, there still is a path for two Big 12 teams to get into the college football playoff. The first thing that needs to happen to make it possible is for BYU to go undefeated in the regular season. If they can get to Arlington with a 12-0 record, they should be in no matter what happens in that championship game as long as the committee doesn’t screw them.
In addition to BYU being 12-0, the conference needs them to lose in the Big 12 title game. Why? It doesn’t matter what the conference champion’s record is; as long as they win, they should be in. Now, it wouldn’t be a good look for the Big 12 to have a four-loss champion, but a two-loss champion should have no issues cracking the top 12.
Joe Tillery: Yes
While it’s no secret that the BYU Cougars have gotten the short end of the stick in the AP Top 25 and the College Football Playoff rankings this fall, an undefeated record is nearly impossible to ignore. In order for two teams to make the CFP out of the Big 12, the Cougars likely would have to lose the Big 12 Championship Game, and with a 12-1 overall record, I feel the team would make the playoff as an at-large bid.
As for which team pairs up with the Cougars in Arlington, Colorado, is in the driver’s seat toward a Championship birth, but with Kansas State just one loss behind them and having the tiebreaker over the Buffaloes, there are multiple teams to consider here. West Virginia, Arizona State, and Iowa State all sit at 4-2 in conference play and should not be ruled out by any stretch of the imagination.
