The 2024 Big 12 race has been as advertised, and with just over two weeks left until the league converges in Arlington, Texas, we have no idea who will be on the field.
This race is truly coming down to the wire. With 16 games left to decide who will go to Jerry’s World, there are just four teams left with a greater than 20% chance of making it.
One of those teams is Arizona State, which has the third-best odds of making a Big 12 Championship appearance, according to the Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor website.
There are 65,536 possible combinations of outcomes in the remaining 16 games, and in 27.88% of those outcomes, Arizona State is one of the two teams in Arlington.
Here are the Sun Devils’ most viable paths to Championship Saturday.
Arizona State’s Most Viable Paths to Arlington
Note: In every scenario listed, it’s assumed that Arizona State wins each of its two remaining games against BYU and Arizona. A loss in either one of those games drops their chances to <1.3%.
Scenario 1: Arizona State (2-0), Iowa State (2-0), Colorado (2-0), BYU (1-1)
One of the benefits that Arizona State is the fact that it plays BYU this week. A win over the Cougars gives them a head-to-head victory over one of the other two teams that they could potentially be tied with at the end of the year.
In this scenario, the Sun Devils take down BYU, while both Colorado and Iowa State win out. The Buffs would have the No. 1 seed as the only 8-1 team in conference play, while there would be a three-way tie between ASU, ISU, and BYU.
Here’s where another advantage for Kenny Dillingham’s group comes in. Arizona State would get the edge over both Iowa State and BYU in this tiebreaker thanks to their record vs. common opponents. The common opponents that all three teams share? Utah, Kansas State, and Kansas.
All three teams went 2-0 against the Utes and Wildcats, while ASU was the only one of the trio to beat the Jayhawks.
Scenario 2: Arizona State (2-0), Colorado (2-0), Iowa State (1-1), BYU (1-1)
Scenario 2 provides the same out come of Colorado vs. Arizona State in the Big 12 title game, but the path to getting there would be even clearer for the Sun Devils.
In this scenario, Iowa State drops their season finale against Kansas State and falls to 6-3 in league play, leaving just two teams with a 7-2 record in Big 12 games: Arizona State and BYU.
Thanks to their win in Week 13, Arizona State has the head-to-head tiebreaker and moves on to face the Buffaloes in Arlington.
While it’s less likely to happen since the Cyclones will be hosting K-State, this is still well within the realm of possibilities.
Scenario 3: Arizona State (2-0), Colorado (1-1), BYU (1-1), Iowa State (1-1) OR (2-0)
Again, in this scenario, Arizona State takes down BYU and Arizona to finish the year with a 10-2 record and a 7-2 record in Big 12 play.
However, scenario 3 is different because it includes the chance that Colorado loses on the road at Kansas this weekend. A win over BYU and a loss from Colorado this weekend would be the best-case scenario for Arizona State coming out of Week 13. Not only would it give them the best chance (56.60%) of going to the Big 12 Championship, but it also sets them up to be the No. 1 seed.
Fast forward to Week 13, and let’s pencil in wins for Colorado (vs. Oklahoma State), BYU (vs. Houston), and Arizona State (@ Arizona). That leaves one more game among the contenders: Iowa State vs. Kansas State.
If the Cyclones win that game, they would force a four-way tie for first place. ASU would get the No. 1 seed, thanks to its win over Kansas, while ISU would eventually earn the second spot via tiebreaker No. 4 (SOS of all conference opponents). However, if the Cyclones were to drop that game, it would force a three-way tie with ASU, BYU, and Colorado all at 7-2. Once again, Arizona State would get the No. 1 seed and it would be BYU who edges out Colorado to force a rematch of the Week 13 showdown in Tempe.
