The 2024 Big 12 race has been as advertised, and with just over two weeks left until the league converges in Arlington, Texas, we have no idea who will be on the field.
This race is truly coming down to the wire. With 16 games left to decide who will go to Jerry’s World, there are just four teams left with a greater than 20% chance of making it.
One of those teams is BYU, which has the best overall odds of making a Big 12 Championship appearance, according to the Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor website.
There are 65,536 possible combinations of outcomes in the remaining 16 games, and in 68.96% of those outcomes, BYU is one of the two teams in Arlington.
Here are the Cougars’ most viable paths to Championship Saturday.
BYU’s Most Viable Paths to Arlington
Scenario 1: BYU (2-0)
BYU is one of two — or three if you count Arizona State — teams that truly control their own destiny. If BYU beats Arizona State and Houston to finish the season with an 8-1 record, they will be guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Championship.
Additionaly, the Cougars appear to have the edge over Colorado in the tiebreaker for first place should the Buffaloes win out as well.
So, for BYU, it’s as simple as it gets. Win, and you’re in.
Scenario 2: BYU (1-1), Colorado (1-1), Arizona State (2-0), Iowa State (1-1)
Scenario 2 would make things much dicier for the Cougars, but in the event that BYU should lose to Arizona State on Saturday, there is still a path to Arlington.
For this to work, Colorado would have to lose to either Kansas or Oklahoma State, and Iowa State would have to lose to Utah or Kansas State. If the Buffs or Cyclones go 2-0, one of them will get in over the Cougars.
However, if they both drop one of their final two games, it would force a situation where BYU would be tied with ASU and Colorado for first place. Arizona State would get the No. 1 seed thanks to record vs. common opponent.
Then, BYU and Colorado would be compared, and the Cougars would advance thanks to a better record vs. common opponents.
Scenario 3: BYU (1-1), Colorado (2-0) OR (1-1), Arizona State (1-1), Iowa State (1-1)
The last, and least likely scenario, is one in which Arizona State beats BYU in Week 13 but turns around and drops their season finale in Arizona.
If that were to happen, it would leave BYU a slight chance of sneaking into the Championship Game.
In addition to Arizona State dropping the ball, BYU would need either Colorado or Iowa State to drop a game as well. If Colorado were to lose, BYU would end up facing Iowa State in Arlington. If Iowa State loses one of two and Colorado wins out, it would be the Cougars and the Buffs in Arlington.
If both Iowa State and Colorado dropped a game in addition to Arizona State falling in Week 14, it would again be BYU and Colorado thanks to them being the only two teams at 7-2 in that scenario.
