The 2024 Big 12 race has been as advertised, and with just over two weeks left until the league converges in Arlington, Texas, we have no idea who will be on the field.
This race is truly coming down to the wire. With 16 games left to decide who will go to Jerry’s World, there are just four teams left with a greater than 20% chance of making it.
One of those teams is Colorado, which has the second-best overall odds of making a Big 12 Championship appearance, according to the Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor website.
There are 65,536 possible combinations of outcomes in the remaining 16 games, and in 63.20% of those outcomes, Colorado is one of the two teams in Arlington.
Here are the Buffaloes’ most viable paths to Championship Saturday.
Colorado’s Most Viable Paths to Arlington
Scenario 1: Colorado (2-0)
Colorado is one of two teams (the other being BYU) that truly control their own destiny. If Colorado beats Kansas and Oklahoma State to end their season with an 8-1 record in Big 12 play, they’ll be in Arlington.
As of now, it appears that BYU would have the edge over Colorado in the tiebreaker for first place should the Cougars win out, too, but that’s of little significance in the grand scheme of things.
So, for Colorado, it’s as simple as it gets. Win, and you’re in.
Scenario 2: Colorado (1-1), BYU (2-0) OR (1-1), Arizona State (1-1), Iowa State (1-1)
In the event that Colorado should lose at Kansas on Saturday, and it is certainly plausible, there would still be a path for the Buffaloes to Arlington.
In addition to beating Oklahoma State in Week 14 (obviously), Colorado would need Iowa State to lose to either Utah or Kansas State, as the Cyclones would edge out CU in tiebreakers thanks to the SOS of conference opponents.
The Buffs would also need BYU to beat Arizona State and send them to 6-3 in Big 12 play in order to get Colorado in the door.
Due to their conference strength of schedule being lower than the other three teams, this is really the only other viable path to the Big 12 Championship if Colorado drops a game. So, it would be much, much easier if they just took care of business and won out.
