The 2024 Big 12 race has been as advertised, and with just over two weeks left until the league converges in Arlington, Texas, we have no idea who will be on the field.
This race is truly coming down to the wire. With 16 games left to decide who will go to Jerry’s World, there are just four teams left with a greater than 20% chance of making it.
One of those teams is Iowa State, which has the fourth-best odds of making a Big 12 Championship appearance, according to the Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor website.
There are 65,536 possible combinations of outcomes in the remaining 16 games, and in 23.42% of those outcomes, Iowa State is one of the two teams in Arlington.
Here are their most viable paths to Championship Saturday.
Iowa State’s Most Viable Paths to Arlington
Note: In every scenario listed, it’s assumed that Iowa State wins each of its two remaining games against Utah and Kansas State. A loss in either one of those games drops their chances to <2.0%.
Scenario 1: Iowa State (2-0), Arizona State (2-0), Colorado (1-1), BYU (1-1)
One of the main contributors to Iowa State getting to Arlington will be one or both of BYU and Colorado losing a game. BYU will play at Arizona State on Saturday, while Colorado is at Kansas. Those games both appear to be virtual tossups and if they both end in upsets, the door for Iowa State swings wide open.
In this particular situation, the Big 12 would have a four-way tie for first place, and with Arizona State-BYU being the only contest between the four teams, it would get pretty ugly in separating things out.
However, with Iowa State and Arizona State both winning out and Colorado and BYU both going 1-1 over the next two weeks, the Cyclones and Sun Devils would be the top two seeds in the title game.
Arizona State would likely be ranked over Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado as the No. 1 seed via group due to record vs. common opponents, and Iowa State would get to advance as the No. 2 seed thanks to the fourth tiebreaker in the process — SOS of all conference opponents.
Scenario 2: Iowa State (2-0), BYU (2-0), Arizona State (1-1), Colorado (1-1)
Scenario 2 is the same outcome, except BYU ends up coming out on top vs. Arizona State and ends the season as the No. 1 seed with an 8-1 record in Big 12 play.
Arizona State’s loss in this scenario moves them to 6-3 in Big 12 play and eliminates a multi-team tie, pitting Iowa State and Colorado against each other in the tiebreakers.
With Iowa State and Colorado tied for second place, being 7-2 in league play, the two would go through the two-team tiebreaker scenarios, with Iowa State eventually getting the edge via SOS of all conference opponents — the fourth tiebreaker.
Scenario 3: Iowa State (2-0), Colorado (2-0), Arizona State (1-1), BYU (1-1)
Of the three scenarios we’ll look at, this is the most unlikely, given all the unlikely things that would have to happen.
First, Iowa State and Colorado would go undefeated — that’s the easy part.
BYU and Arizona State would then both have to go 1-1. If BYU were to beat Arizona State, the Cougars would have to drop their season finale against Houston to force a tie.
Meanwhile, if Arizona State were to beat BYU and then finish out the year with a win over Arizona, the Sun Devils would force a three-way tie with Iowa State and BYU. Arizona State would get the edge over both Iowa State and BYU in that tiebreaker via record vs. common opponents, i.e., going 1-0 vs. Kansas.
