The Big 12 Championship race has been tight all season long, but after some surprising upsets over the last two weekends, we’ve got a jumbled mess of contenders who still have a real shot at making it to Arlington.
BYU and Colorado both control their own destiny, and Arizona State would be overwhelmingly favored to get to Arlington if they win out. Still, everyone else in the field is going to need some help.
That being said, we’ve seen how chaotic this league can be throughout the season, and it’s way too soon to count the other teams out, even if it seems unlikely.
There are some pretty wild possibilities still out there with just two weeks left. Let’s take a look at the five craziest potential matchups in the Big 12 Championship as we head into Week 13.
Note: A major shout out to Ben Williams (@biwillis) for putting together the Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor (not affiliated with the Big 12)Â
#1 Baylor (8-4, 6-3) vs. #2 Texas Tech (8-4, 6-3)
Likelihood: 0.124% (81 out of 65,536 possible outcomes)
Could the total points scored in the Big 12 Championship approach triple digits? Maybe, Baylor and Texas Tech will get a rematch from their regular season matchup, which totaled 94 points (Baylor 59, Texas Tech 25). Here’s one combination of outcomes that would lead to a “BUTT Bowl” rematch:
- Baylor beats Houston, Kansas
- Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State, West Virginia
- BYU, Colorado go 0-2
- West Virginia beats UCF
This particular combination of outcomes would leave the Big 12 with a *checks notes* seven-way tie for first place. Baylor would get the No. 1 seed, thanks to their SOS of all conference opponents, and Texas Tech would land the No. 2 seed courtesy of the same tiebreaker.
So, that gives us two 8-4 teams in Arlington, and three 9-3 teams at home watching on television. Oof.
#1 Kansas State (9-3, 6-3) vs. #2 Iowa State (9-3, 6-3)
Likelihood: 0.021% (15 out of 65,536 possible outcomes)
Is anyone up for back-to-back weeks of Farmageddon?! There’s a chance it could happen, and here’s one example of what it would take:
- Kansas State beats Cincinnati, Iowa State
- Iowa State beats Utah, loses to Kansas State
- West Virginia, Kansas, TCU go 2-0
- BYU, Colorado go 0-2
This particular combination of outcomes would leave the Big 12 with another seven-way tie for first place, and would end up favoring Kansas State and Iowa State as the top two seeds, with West Virginia, BYU, TCU, Arizona State, and Colorado rounding out the other 6-3 teams.
The tiebreaker used to separate teams seeded from two through seven? A coin toss.
#1 West Virginia (7-5, 6-3) vs. #2 TCU (8-4, 6-3)
Likelihood: 0.003% (2 out of 65,536 possible outcomes)
How about a 7-5 West Virginia team getting the nod as the No. 1 seed in the Big 12?
- West Virginia beats UCF, Texas Tech
- TCU beats Arizona, Cincinnati
- Arizona State beats BYU, loses to Arizona
- BYU, Colorado, Iowa State go 0-2
- Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State
This combination of results would give the Big 12 a five-way tie for first place, leaving fate to decide the Big 12 Championship matchup. West Virginia gets the nod for record vs. common opponent, but the other four teams are subject to a coin toss.
