The Big 12 Conference saw five teams get ranked in the 2024 College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14. The Arizona State Sun Devils led the Big 12 in this week’s rankings at No. 16. Then, there was a rush of Big 12 teams that followed with the Iowa State Cyclones at No. 18, the BYU Cougars at No. 19, the Kansas State Wildcats back in the mix at No. 24 and Colorado at No. 25.
So, with one week left in the college football regular season, where do the teams stand when it comes to odds of making the College Football Playoff?
Here’s the latest odds from BetOnline.ag.
| To Make 12-Team Playoff | ||||
| Moneyline | Odds | % Chance | % Chance +/- | |
| Indiana | -2200 | 1/22 | 95.7% | +15.7% |
| Notre Dame | -650 | 2/13 | 86.7% | +3.4% |
| Tennessee | -500 | 1/5 | 83.3% | +25% |
| Boise State | -350 | 2/7 | 77.8% | 0% |
| Miami | -275 | 4/11 | 73.3% | +6.6% |
| SMU | -190 | 10/19 | 65.5% | +9% |
| Arizona State | +130 | 13/10 | 43.5% | +18.5% |
| Clemson | +190 | 19/10 | 34.5% | +5.9% |
| Alabama | +220 | 11/5 | 31.3% | -57.6% |
| Iowa State | +250 | 5/2 | 28.6% | +16.1% |
| BYU | +300 | 3/1 | 25% | 0% |
| Ole Miss | +375 | 15/4 | 21.1% | -58.9% |
| Tulane | +375 | 15/4 | 21.1% | +6.8% |
| South Carolina | +400 | 4/1 | 20% | +20% |
| Colorado | +600 | 6/1 | 14.3% | -44% |
| Texas A&M | +750 | 15/2 | 11.8% | -8.2% |
| Army | +2500 | 25/1 | 3.9% | -7.9% |
This means no team has more than a 43.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Obviously the odds are one of these four teams will win the Big 12, given they are all tied at 6-2, but as we know, there is still a path for nine Big 12 teams to reach the Big 12 Championship Game next week in Arlington.
The odds also confirm what Big 12 fans know, that Iowa State and Arizona State have the best odds of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game based on tiebreakers.
Per the Big 12, the following details tiebreaking scenarios for ties among teams with 7-2 Big 12 records.
Big 12 Tiebreaker Scenarios
- Two-team tie scenarios:
- The two tied teams at 7-2 will be the Championship game participants.
- Three-team tie scenarios:
- Colorado loss: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- Arizona State loss: Iowa State vs. BYU
- Iowa State loss: Arizona State vs. BYU
- BYU loss:
- If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
- If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
- Otherwise: Colorado vs. Arizona State
- If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
- Four-team tie scenario:
- Arizona State vs. Iowa State
- For teams who are 5-3 entering the week, they must win and see at least three of the four 6-2 teams take a loss.
For the games coming up this week, it starts on Friday. The two Black Friday games were announced months ago, with Colorado hosting Oklahoma State at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC, while Utah will travel to play UCF at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Week 13 Big 12 Saturday Nov. 30 Schedule
Kansas at Baylor: 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
West Virginia at Texas Tech: 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1
Arizona at Arizona State: 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX
TCU at Cincinnati: 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Kansas State at Iowa State: 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Houston at BYU: 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
