After 144 games in Big 12 play, it all comes down to this Saturday when Arizona State (10-2) and Iowa State (10-2) go head-to-head for the right to be called Big 12 Champion.
The 15th-ranked Sun Devils enter the game as a 1.5-point favorite, but will be without one of their best offensive players after Jordyn Tyson had season-ending surgery earlier this week. Meanwhile, the No. 16 Cyclones have righted the ship after a mid-season blunder and carry a three-game winning streak into Saturday.
Which team will be hoisting that Big 12 Trophy on Saturday afternoon? The Heartland College Sports staff discusses in this week’s roundtable.
Pete Mundo: Arizona State
It’s a great match-up between Arizona State and Iowa State, pitting an “old” Big 12 team against a “new” Big 12 team. But the biggest thing about this game that benefits Arizona State is its running attack. Arizona State has been one of the most run-heavy and effective rushing teams in the nation. The Sun Devils have run on 60.2% of plays, the 13th-highest in college football. Iowa State’s run defense is second-worst in the Big 12, giving up 5.0 yards per carry and over 170 yards per game.
The fast track in Arlington will help Cam Skattebo get going early for the Sun Devils, who will want to control Time of Possession, where they are ranked 2nd in the Big 12 this season. Interestingly, Iowa State is ranked 1st. I’m taking the Sun Devils to go from preseason No. 16 to in-season No. 1 and winning the Big 12 Championship.
Arizona State 27, Iowa State 24
Bryan Clinton: Arizona State
I could not be more excited about the matchup that we ended up with in the Big 12 Championship, and it is going to be one heck of a matchup. If Jordyn Tyson was available in this game, I’d probably say Arizona State would win by 7-10 points, just because I believe he brings a balance to the Sun Devils’ offensive attack that is so difficult to match.
All week long, the not-so-well-hidden secret of Iowa State’s run defense has gotten out to the media that are tuning in for a Big 12 game for the first time this season. That alone has people smashing the Sun Devils’ money line with Cam Skattebo in the backfield. However, what isn’t getting talked about enough is how that’s going to affect Iowa State. Matt Campbell and Jon Heacock will have to do one of two things in this game. Either they’ll keep running the same three-deep safety look and let Skattebo gash them in the run game, or they’ll have to stack the box and force Sam Leavitt to beat them through the air.
I think they’ll opt to do the latter but underestimate Leavitt’s ability at your own risk. The Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year has a 21:5 TD-to-INT ratio through the air and the 16th-best QBR (78.6) in the country. ISU might stop the run early, but Leavitt will force them into playing what they know best, and Skattebo will grind the game away in the end.
Arizona State 28, Iowa State 24
Joe Tillery: Arizona State
Like the other HCS guys, I relatively butchered my Big 12 Championship Game pick this year. I elected to roll with Kansas State taking down Utah, but one team missed out on bowl eligibility, and the other faded down the stretch. Still, both of my championship participants lost to both teams in the current title game, Arizona State and Iowa State, so it goes without saying the impressive nature of both squads.
While it’s impossible for me not to consider this an exciting matchup, I believe this game will be more lopsided than most. Despite operating without their best pass catcher, I see Arizona State cruising to a Big 12 Championship in their first season as league members, with the best running back in the Big 12, Cam Skattebo, continuing his dominant stretch.
Iowa State has the offense to compete with Arizona State, but the best players in this matchup are wearing the Sun Devil logo, and I see Kenny Dillingham cementing himself as the Big 12’s top coach and the National Coach of the Year with a win over Iowa State.
Arizona State 37, Iowa State 21
Matthew Postins: Iowa State
First, full disclosure — I had Kansas State playing Utah in this game at the start of the season, with K-State winning. So, yeah, big swing and miss. I had Iowa State in my group of teams that could contend to get to Arlington and Arizona State at “not gonna happen.” I don’t think anyone, even most folks in Tempe, knew what Kenny Dillingham had cooking in the desert. Iowa State played in this game in 2020 and lost to Oklahoma. But at least the Cyclones have been here recently. Arizona State played in the 2013 Pac-12 title game (the Sun Devlis actually hosted it) and hasn’t won a conference title since 2007.
The past isn’t prologue. Both the Cyclones and the Sun Devils have been through it this season, and perhaps ISU has been a bit more so. Both teams are built the same way — love to run, love to defend, and have two quarterbacks that are dynamic enough to make game-changing plays. This won’t be a blowout like last year. This is a nail-biter, down-to-the-wire like the year before (K-State-TCU). I like Iowa State by a last-minute touchdown.
Iowa State 33, Arizona State 31
P.S. You shouldn’t need to worry about the sun in the end zone for this one. Game starts early enough to avoid that. But, if you’re so inclined, bring your own curtains for the west end zone and hang them up yourself.
Derek Duke: Iowa State
First off, I am so happy for these two schools. Making it to the Big 12 championship game is no easy task. This conference is an absolute grind and both of these teams deserve to be here. With that said, this is a very interesting matchup. For Arizona State, it starts with their defense and ability to run the ball with electric running back Cam Skattebo. He is a tough man to stop, but Iowa State’s defense has been playing better over the last few weeks. Plus, I worry about the loss of leading receiver Jordyn Tyson. Without him, the Sun Devils don’t have a proven pass catcher which means more focus will be put on Cam.
For Iowa State, I trust Rocco Becht. He has proven time and time again that he can get the job in crunch time. Arizona State’s weakness is its secondary, and Iowa State could exploit that with weapons like Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. The only concern I have is if Iowa State can run the ball against a good Arizona State front. However, they did manage to rush for 187 against Kansas State last weekend, which had the best run defense in the Big 12.
In the end, the difference in this game will be Iowa State’s ability to throw the football with their dynamic duo at receiver and special teams. Arizona State has had kicking issues all season long, which could turn into some interesting decisions for Kenny Dillingham. Give me the Cyclones in a close one as they end their 100-plus-year conference title drought.
Iowa State 27, Arizona State 24
