Anyone who’s followed Big 12 for any amount of time has, at one point or another, caught wind of ESPN’s muckraking about the league’s reputation on the football field.
The Big 12 was the darling of college football throughout the 2000s when the original dozen had members that stood among the most storied traditions in the sport.
With programs like Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, and Texas A&M, there was money, power, and prestige that ESPN couldn’t boast about enough.
Then, after the reformation of college football in 2012 — and once again in 2024 — the league’s status has changed in the eye of sports media’s most prominent entity.
ESPN Has Been at This for Years
In July of 2021, Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby accused ESPN of trying to “destabilize” the league and even sent a cease-and-desist letter to the network.
“I have absolute certainty that they [ESPN] have been involved in manipulating other conferences to go after our members,” Bowlsby told The Associated Press at the time.
The “Worldwide Leader in Sports” could not cause the league’s collapse after its two biggest brands left for the SEC. Instead, Bowlsby and the Big 12 office pulled together and added the four most expansion-ready schools available: BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF.
Then, thanks to the hapless leadership of entertainment-mogul-turned-commissioner Georgia Kliavkoff, the Pac-12 took a nosedive and eventually dissolved, leaving college athletics with just four “Power Conferences.”
Meanwhile, the Big 12 was one of the primary beneficiaries of the most recent cycle of chaos, adding Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado — bringing the conference’s membership to 16 teams for the first time.
Despite ESPN’s best efforts, the Big 12 has been able to hang on and even grow despite the recent turmoil in the sport.
The CFP Committee Tried to Push the Narrative, Too
Now, as we stand on the precipice of college football’s first 12-team playoff, it seems the folks in Bristol (CT) are bitter that this league is still standing.
Over the last several weeks, a rhetoric was formed against the Big 12, suggesting that the league might not just be unworthy of a first-round bye, but if things fell just right, they might have to be left out of the invitational.
Boise State was getting the benefit of the doubt despite losing their only game against a Power Four opponent this season.
Throughout the month of November, there were on-air discussions of putting the winner of the AAC in over the Big 12 Champion during the College Football Playoff Top 25 Show. Because the league doesn’t have its traditional powers anymore, college football experts have a predisposition to discredit the conference’s top teams.
Meanwhile, the discussion surrounding a three-loss Alabama team getting in —despite a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma (6-6) in Week 13 — was as strong as ever. And, to make matters worse, the committee seemingly turned its eyes from the fact that Boise State has played just one Power Four team all season long and lost.
Yormark’s Much-Needed Stand
Last week, ahead of the Big 12 Championship Game, Commissioner Brett Yormark decided that he’d had enough and didn’t pull any punches when it came to defending his conference.
“The [selection] committee continues to show time and time again that they are paying attention to logos versus résumés,” Yormark said. “Strength of schedule should matter and wins against Power 4 opponents should matter — 74% of the Big 12 wins were against Power 4 opponents this season. Meanwhile, the Group of 5 is 11-80. I want to say that again — 11-80. In no way should a Group of 5 champion be ranked above our champion. I’m going to say that again. In no way should a Group of 5 champion be ranked above our champion.”
Yormark then shared his main concern with the selection process, which is one of the main things that’s kept ESPN’s narrative alive.
“One thing I am concerned about [with the College Football Playoff format], candidly, I need to better understand, what are the key metrics that are being used as we think about the rankings each week? Because strength of schedule was something that was identified for me early in the fall as a critically important metric, and I’m not sure that that has happened, at least to date.”
Yormark ended his opening statement by saying that he ultimately trusts the committee to get things right.
“Obviously I challenge what I’ve seen to date, and again I’m going to lean on strength of schedule. I don’t think it’s played out the way it should,” Yormark said. “But I do have trust in the committee that ultimately we’ll land where we’re supposed to land. And, you know, that ultimately will mean we’ll get a bye. … It will come down to the selection committee making that decision, but I’m hopeful it will be the right one.”
In the end, the Big 12 did get a bye after Arizona State (11-2) claimed the Big 12 title with an impressive 45-19 win over Iowa State — but it still landed behind Boise State (12-1) in the pecking order after the Broncos’ 21-7 win over UNLV in the MAC Championship.
Now, They’re Bashing Arizona State
Arizona State’s 26-point victory over Iowa State was the most lopsided win for any playoff-bound team this weekend. The Sun Devils thoroughly dominated the No. 18 ranked team in the final CFP Top 25 and enter the postseason on a six-game winning streak — surpassed only by Oregon (14) and Notre Dame (10) among Power Four programs.
What ASU has done in Year 2 under Kenny Dillingham is remarkable, and after being picked to finish 16th in their first year in the Big 12, the Sun Devils are carrying the Big 12 banner into the College Football Playoff with an 11-2 record.
Instead of showering the Sun Devils with compliments and showing just how impressive a turnaround it’s been, it appears ESPN is more concerned with keeping its Big 12 narrative alive.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked all 52 teams in College Football Playoff history, dating back to the first four-team field in 2014.
ESPN’s worst team in College Football Playoff history?
The 2024 Arizona State Sun Devils:
“As late as Week 12, Arizona State’s playoff odds were 2.9%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor,” Connelly writes. “But Kenny Dillingham’s Sun Devils beat three of the Big 12’s four best teams as part of a six-game winning streak, charging into and capturing the Big 12 championship game. With running back Cam Skattebo leading the way, the Sun Devils are physical and confident, but they will be underdogs from here.
With the field expanding to 12 teams this season, it makes for at least eight of the teams in this year’s field to be near the bottom of the list, and we see that with 2024 Boise State (No. 51) and 2024 Clemson (No. 50) being the next two teams on the list.
I’m not saying that Arizona State should be favored to win this thing; I’m not even saying that they won’t get eliminated by Clemson or Texas in the quarterfinals. But having an 11-2 Big 12 Champion behind Boise State and a three-loss Clemson team feels incredibly disrespectful and farfetched.
A Fair, Narrative-Free Comparison
To get a better idea of how Arizona State actually stacks up, I’ve used a combination of statistics that take ESPN completely out of the picture.
Instead of using metrics created by ESPN (i.e. FPI, SP+, SOR, SOS), I put together a table with reliable data from other sources. The first source comes from College Football Insiders (CFI), which produced the EPA statistics used in the first three columns. EPA, or Expected Points Added, is an advanced statistic used commonly in the NFL to measure how well a team performs compared to their expectation on a play-to-play basis.
In general, the higher above zero (0.000) an offense is, the better its performance. The further below zero a defense is, the better it is performing. For example, the top-ranked offense in EPA/play is Miami (FL), with 0.142 offensive expected points added per play. Meanwhile, the No. 1 defense in EPA/play is Ohio State, with -0.157 defensive expected points added per play.
I used a few other metrics that ESPN can’t control to give us an unbiased comparison between teams, giving us seven different categories to compare teams by:
- Offensive EPA/Play
- Defensive EPA/Play
- Net EPA (Difference of Off. EPA and Def. EPA)
- Record vs. Bowl Teams
- Record vs. Power Four Teams
- Record vs. Final AFCA Coaches Poll
- Simulated BCS Score (@BCSKnowHow)
Here’s a look at the table comparing five teams that are in the field in 2024.
| TEAM | OFF. EPA/PLAY | DEF. EPA/PLAY | NET EPA/PLAY | Record vs. Bowl Teams | Record vs. P4 Teams | Rec. vs. Coaches Poll | BCS Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team 1 | 12th (0.094) | 18th (-0.073) | 13th (0.167) | 4-1 | 9-2 | 3-0 | 10th (.6266) |
| Team 2 | 21st (0.072) | 26th (-.063) | 17th (0.134) | 4-3 | 8-3 | 1-3 | 13th (.5124) |
| Team 3 | 18th (0.077) | 62nd (-0.008) | 38th (0.085) | 5-1 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 9th (.6577) |
| Team 4 | 2nd (0.131) | 17th (-0.080) | 9th (0.211) | 3-1 | 8-1 | 0-1 | 8th (.6880) |
| Team 5 | 19th (0.076) | 11th (-0.093) | 12th (0.170) | 6-2 | 9-2 | 2-2 | 12th (.5630) |
In addition to these, let’s look at a few cases where we’ve got common opponents among the five teams.
Team 1 and Team 5 share one common opponent with the following results:
- Team 1: W, 28-23 | Team 5: L, 15-18
Team 1 and Team 3 share one common opponent with the following results:
- Team 1: W, 48-7 | Team 3: W, 17-13
Team 2 and Team 5 share five common opponents and one head-to-head matchup with the following results:
- Team 5: W, 40-10 | Team 2: W, 40-14
- Team 5: W, 42-16 | Team 2: W, 29-13
- Team 5: W, 33-7 | Team 2: W, 48-31
- Team 5: W, 34-27 | Team 2: L, 21-33
- Team 5: W, 48-25 | Team 2: W, 24-20
- Head-to-Head: Team 2 def. Team 5, 34-31
Conclusion: ESPN’s Bias Against Big 12 Football Isn’t Just Annoying, It’s Baseless
Strictly based on the statistics above, how would you rank the teams? All five teams are in the playoff field this season and rank between No. 52 and No. 43 on Bill Connelly’s list.
- Team 4
- Team 1
- Team 5
- Team 2
- Team 3
So, which team is which?
Here’s the same table and matchups with teams revealed:
| TEAM | OFF. EPA/PLAY | DEF. EPA/PLAY | NET EPA/PLAY | Record vs. Bowl Teams | Record vs. P4 Teams | Rec. vs. Coaches Poll | BCS Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St. | 12th (0.094) | 18th (-0.073) | 13th (0.167) | 4-1 | 9-2 | 3-0 | 10th (0.6266) |
| Clemson | 21st (0.072) | 26th (-0.063) | 17th (0.134) | 4-3 | 8-3 | 1-3 | 13th (0.5124) |
| Boise St. | 18th (0.077) | 62nd (-0.008) | 38th (0.085) | 5-1 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 9th (0.6577) |
| Indiana | 2nd (0.131) | 17th (-0.080) | 9th (0.211) | 3-1 | 8-1 | 0-1 | 8th (0.6880) |
| SMU | 19th (0.076) | 11th (-0.093) | 12th (0.170) | 6-2 | 9-2 | 2-2 | 12th (0.5630) |
Arizona State and SMU both played BYU:
- Arizona State: W, 28-23
- SMU: L, 15-18
Arizona State and Boise State both played Wyoming:
- Arizona State: W, 48-7
- Boise State: W, 17-13
Clemson and SMU share five common opponents (Stanford, Florida State, Virginia, Louisville, Pitt) and played head-to-head.
- Stanford
- SMU: W, 40-10
- Clemson: W, 40-14
- Florida State
- SMU: W, 42-16
- Clemson: W, 29-13
- Virginia
- SMU: W, 33-7
- Clemson: W, 48-31
- Louisville
- SMU: W, 34-27
- Clemson: L, 21-33
- Pittsburgh
- SMU: W, 48-25
- Clemson: W, 24-20
- Head-to-Head: Clemson def. SMU, 34-31
So, with the teams now revealed, the metrics would point to the teams being ranked like this, based on their standing among the teams in the table (rank in metrics from left to right)
- Indiana (1st, 2nd, 1st, T-3rd, 1st, 5th, 1st)
- Arizona State (2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, T-2nd, 1st, 3rd)
- SMU (4th, 1st, 2nd, T-3rd, T-2nd, 3rd, 4th)
- Boise State (3rd, 5th, 5th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 2nd)
- Clemson (5th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 4th, 4th, 5th)
ESPN says that Arizona State is the worst team to ever make the College Football Playoff, yet the metrics would suggest that they’re not even the worst team to make the playoff this season.
In fact, the unbiased metrics would suggest that Arizona State is the second-best team among this group of five. Conversely, the worst team in this playoff is Clemson, who ranks no better than fourth in any given category.
Boise State is well below the rest of the field in defensive and net EPA, and they also have the worst standing of all teams against Power Four competition.
Any way you slice it, Arizona State isn’t the lucky, bid-stealing Cinderella that ESPN would like you to believe they are. But because they’re from the lowly Big 12, that’s the narrative we’ll hear until New Year’s Day.
