The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff is set to get underway this weekend, determining who each of the four highest-ranked conference champions will face in the quarterfinals next weekend.
Arizona State, the Big 12 Champion, has the No. 4 seed in the bracket and awaits the winner of No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Clemson, which is set for Saturday afternoon (3:00 p.m. CT) in Austin, Texas.
This game appears to be a one-sided affair by Vegas’s standards, with Texas opening as a 10.5-point favorite and swelling to a 12-point favorite with just around 24 hours left until kickoff.
One of the most intriguing things about college football, though, is how unpredictable things are from game to game. Will Texas show up and dominate Clemson at home like it’s supposed to, or will Dabo Swinney’s group have something to say about that line?
Oftentimes, an upset can be predictable if there’s evidence in the metrics and data.
Is Clemson likely to pull off an upset over the Longhorns, or is Arizona State vs. Texas destined to be the matchup in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl? Here’s what the data says according to a few of the most reliable sources.
College Football Insiders
College Football Insiders’ metrics suggest that Texas will win this game 75.52% of the time, with a projected final score of 28-20, suggesting the Longhorns will win, but Clemson will cover.
In CFI’s metrics, darker blue boxes indicate high ratings among other teams, with Texas measuring in the top 10 nationally in several categories. White boxes indicate average ratings among other teams, while red-tinted boxes indicate that a team rates lower in that statistic compared to other teams.
There are only two boxes on this breakdown that are red, and both belong to Texas.
- The first is defensive field position, which Texas ranks 80th nationally. Unfortunately for Clemson, the Tigers’ offense isn’t elite in that metric, just 56th in the country.
- The second is Texas’ defensive RROE, or rush rate over expectancy, which is how often the Texas defense faces designed runs relative to an average team in situations when a run might not be expected (i.e., 2nd & 11, 3 & 7). They rank 126th nationally, facing fewer expected runs than most teams, while Clemson’s offense ranks 11th nationally, with a very high RROE.
Synopsis: The tables would suggest that Clemson’s offense is going to find a hard time moving the football against Texas’s defense, which is pretty much elite in every metric, even with less-than-average field position. Meanwhile, Texas’s offense and Clemson’s defense are somewhat evenly matched in success rate, and the Longhorns’ eckel rate (9th), or quantity of quality possessions vs. Clemson’s defense (45th) would suggest Texas will likely get some opportunities to create separation in key situations.
If you’re looking for an upset here, you’d better keep digging. Efficiencies on both sides of the ball would suggest Texas will win this football game.
Football Power Index (FPI)
5 Texas Longhorns (11-2)
| Statistic | Rank |
|---|---|
| FPI | 1st (26.1) |
| Strength of Record | 3rd |
| Strength of Schedule | 20th |
| Game Control | 1st |
| AVG Win Prob. | 5th |
| Overall Efficiency | 2nd |
| Offensive Efficiency | 17th |
| Defensive Efficiency | 1st |
| Sp. Teams Efficiency | 123rd |
12 Clemson Tigers (10-3)
| Statistic | Rank |
|---|---|
| FPI | 15th (14.7) |
| Strength of Record | 19th |
| Strength of Schedule | 35th |
| Game Control | 8th |
| AVG Win Prob. | 9th |
| Overall Efficiency | 12th |
| Offensive Efficiency | 9th |
| Defensive Efficiency | 18th |
| Sp. Teams Efficiency | 120th |
ESPN analytics from the Football Power Index (FPI) attempt to power rank teams based on their performance or expected performance relative to other teams. It’s an interesting way to look at things and does provide some good insight on how teams compare to one another.
So, how do these teams match up?
SYNOPSIS: The Longhorns appear to have played the tougher schedule, and yet have the better record, better game control, and better average win probability.
According to FPI, we will see the matchups when the units are on the field:
- Texas OFF (17th) vs. Clemson DEF (18th)
- Clemson OFF (9th) vs. Texas DEF (1st)
Again, Texas appears to have the edge more often than not, and that’s why ESPN analytics gives Texas an 80.5% chance of winning.
Predictions
Finally, let’s look at some of the predictions that are out there from college football experts.
CBS Sports
Of the seven people on CBS Sports’ panel, four picked Clemson to cover (+11.5), while three felt Texas would win by 12 or more points. Meanwhile, six people took Texas to win straight up, with one person taking Clemson to pull the upset.
FOX Sports
Fox Sports’ prediction is that Texas will win 31-21, leaving Clemson to cover (+13) and have the over (51.5) hit in the matchup.
Joel Klatt Show
Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt has Texas winning the game, 27-17.
“I like Texas to win this game,” Klatt said. “Texas, I think, is going to get close to 30 points and I think they score 27. Clemson does not get close to 27 points, I think they. score 17 thus I think actually covering the 11.5 is the way I’m going to go with Clemson.”
“I think I’m going to take the points with Clemson just because of this offense and the lack of production from the offense down the back half of the year. But again, Texas’ defense is going to win this game for them, 27-17.”
College Football Network
Texas 31, Clemson 23
“Quinn Ewers isn’t the answer for the Longhorns, but that won’t matter too much against Clemson. That’s because Texas is a difficult matchup for the Tigers. First, Clemson’s defensive weak point is the ground game, where it ranks 53rd in success rate and 73rd in yards allowed per game (150.5). Second, Texas’ defense won’t allow the offense to find a rhythm, ranking among the nation’s best in several key statistics.” – James Fragoza, CFN
