There’s no doubt that the first round of the College Football Playoff, in the first-ever 12-team format, did not live up to the hype. On Friday night, Notre Dame beat Indiana 27-17. And then in the three games on Saturday, Penn State rolled SMU 38-10, Texas handled Clemson 38-24 and Ohio State crushed Tennessee 42-17.
That’s an average margin of victory of 19.2 points.
Not exactly competitive.
But how unique is that in football, generally speaking?
College Football Playoff Blowouts are Nothing New
The last two years have seen four semifinal games that were decided by an average of five points. Michigan beat Alabama in overtime 27-20, while Washington handled Texas 37-31. And the year prior saw TCU upset Michigan 51-45 and Georgia beat Ohio State 42-41.
But, before that? Blowouts, largely.
Throughout the the first eight years of the College Football Playoff, the semifinals were decided by an average of 21 points per game. Oh, and that’s with a large sample size: 16 games.
So why are we surprised that when the Playoff expands to 12 teams that we get blowouts in the first round?
I’m just excited that during a weekend that usually a dead one for college football, we got some games that had hype and build up leading up to them, even if they didn’t result in a great game on the field.
Related: Arizona State is the Last Hope for the Big 12 and ACC in the College Football Playoff
NFL Wild Card Round Blowouts
Let’s look to the NFL, now.
Wild Card weekend, the first round of the NFL Playoffs, have seen plenty of blowouts in recent years as well.
The 2023-24 NFL Playoffs saw Wild Card weekend have an average margin of victory of 17.3 points per game. Other than the Lions beating the Rams 24-23, the remaining five games were decided by at least 14 points, which the largest margin of victory being 31 (Texans over Browns 45-14).
For the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs, the Wild Card weekend was competitive, with an average margin of victory of 7.1 points per game. Much better.
But, that may be more of the outlier than we realize. The 2021-22 NFL Playoffs saw Wild Card weekend with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points per game.
All in all, none of this should be a shocker, and the success of the Playoff, or the selection committee, should not be based on the margin of victory in these first round games.
