Penn State and Boise State got the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff underway on Tuesday night, with the Nittany Lions advancing to the semifinals with a 31-14 win over the Broncos.
While Penn State was favored by double digits coming into the game, Boise State hung around and made it interesting for a while, but eventually succumbed to the superior depth and talent of a top-tier Big Ten roster.
Football is a numbers game, and more often than not, the box score will tell the story of the game and how it ultimately ended up going. Here are three stats that stuck out in this contest and played the biggest role in sending Penn State to the next round of the CFP, where they’ll face the winner of Notre Dame vs. Georgia.
Sack-Adjusted Yards Per Rush: 6.8 to 3.8
Penn State’s edge in the trenches showed up in a big way when it comes to the effectiveness of each team’s rushing attack. Boise State hoped that it could ride Ashton Jeanty to a 13th victory, but Penn State’s defensive front was just too stout, holding the Heisman runner-up to 3.5 yards per carry. The Broncos managed just 108 yards rushing on 40 attempts (2.7 ypc), and with the four sacks they gave up removed from the equation, they managed just 3.6 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions had 216 yards on 41 attempts (5.3 ypc), and with three sacks and 26 yards added back in, the total comes up to 244 yards (6.6 ypc). It doesn’t always correlate, but the team that rushes for more yards most often wins the game. When one team relies heavily on their rushing attack and can’t get it going, it proves detrimental.
Team Turnovers: 4 to 1
Turnovers are the great equalizer in football, and statistics show that teams with a positive differential in the turnover margin win games 70% of the time. If Boise State was going to pull off an upset in this game, it needed to win the turnover battle, probably in a big way.
Both teams lost a fumble, and Jeanty had two hit the ground, which ties his total for the season heading into this game. The difference, however, came through the air. Penn State’s Drew Allar played a clean game and took care of the football, avoiding any interceptions while tossing three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Boise State’s Maddux Madsen had three interceptions, and despite one of them being in garbage time, they all took potential points off the board.
First Quarter Scoring Differential: 14-0
Another thing that Boise State needed to do if they hoped to upset Penn State was get off to a fast start. Unfortunately, they experienced the exact opposite, as the Broncos fell into a 14-0 hole in the first quarter. That wasn’t the only lopsided stat in the first quarter, either, as the Nittany Lions held strong advantages in several other first-quarter categories.
- 1Q Rush Yards:
- Penn State: 69 yards on 10 attempts (6.9 avg)
- Boise State: 17 yards on 10 attempts (1.7 avg)
- 1Q Total Yards:
- Penn State: 144
- Boise State: 79
- 1Q Yards Per Play:
- Penn State: 9.6
- Boise State: 4.9
Penn State’s quick start allowed them to get out front and control the pace of the game, but it also severely hampered Boise State’s offensive efficiency. They were playing from behind the rest of the night, and even though they still tried to run the ball until the end, the game script was against them the rest of the way.
Bonus Statistic: Coming into this game, Jeanty averaged 4.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt. In the first half of tonight’s game, he averaged 1.6 yards after contact. If there’s one stat that tells the entire story of the game, it’s this one.
