The Houston Cougars and the Duke Blue Devils are set to face each other in the national semifinals of the NCAA Tournament’s Final Four on Saturday night.
The Cougars (34-4) have lost one game since the end of November. In fact, three of their four losses this season have come to teams that reached this year’s Sweet 16. One of them — Auburn — is also in the Final Four.
The Blue Devils (35-3) have been on a similar streak. Their only losses are to Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson. The Clemson loss was in February, with the two losses before that in November.
So, how can Houston beat Duke? Here are three possible ways.
BE EFFICIENT FROM THE 3-POINT LINE
Both Houston and Duke shoot a high percentage from deep. But there’s a difference.
The Cougars are No. 4 in 3-point percentage at 39.69%. Duke is No. 11 at 38.58%. But Duke has shot more than 200 more 3-pointers than Houston.
So, Duke will shoot more, but Houston is more efficient. The Cougars must be that efficient on Saturday. They have the shooters to do it. Three of them — L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan — have been above 40% or hovering there all season.
For Houston to win, they need to win the 3-point battle, and they need to do it without being forced to play the volume game like Duke.
DEFENSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
Houston is facing a Duke team that is No. 9 in the county in scoring, as the Blue Devils average 83.7 points per game. They’re a hard team to slow down. Duke is not just talented freshman Cooper Flagg. He has plenty of talent around him.
Duke may be the most challenging team Houston has faced in terms of slowing down its offense. I expect the Cougars to empty the toolbox.
I think you’ll see Houston run some full-court press, either in man or zone. I think you’ll see them extend the defense to halfcourt to create traps on the wings. You may even see them try and trick some things up in the halfcourt, perhaps a box-and-one or a 2-3 zone in certain situations.
Coach Kelvin Sampson won’t be abandoning his philosophy. But he’ll be shifting gears throughout trying to find what works and what puts Duke off-balance. That will be a key Saturday night — shifting the defensive gears to try and throw Duke out of rhythm.
Houston is one of the few teams that can do that defensively for 40 minutes. I’m not sure Duke has faced a similar team.
THE MAGIC NUMBER
Houston allows an NCAA-low 58.3 points per game defensively. Given how many points Duke scores, the Cougars aren’t going to shut the Blue Devils completely down. But how much must they slow Duke down?
Are Duke’s three losses any guide? Duke lost to Kentucky, 77-72, Kansas, 75-72, and Clemson, 77-71.
Average those three losses up and Duke scored about 71.5 points per game.
For Houston, that’s the benchmark. The Cougars need to hold Duke to about 71 points to win this game.
You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.
