It felt like the college baseball season just started, but unfortunately, we’re heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Some schools have already earned their way into the postseason, but for others, this weekend is their last chance to make a statement.
D1Baseball recently released its final regular season postseason projections, and here’s where the Big 12 stands heading into the stretch run.
Regional Hosts
TCU (13)
It’s a little surprising to see the Horned Frogs projected as a regional host—especially ahead of West Virginia. TCU currently sits in third place in the Big 12 with a 17–10 record in conference play.
But what really boosts TCU’s case is the RPI. The Horned Frogs rank No. 16 nationally in that category, which carries major weight in college baseball. However, a rough weekend against Utah on the road could cause them to slip as far as sixth in the league standings.
West Virginia (16)
Of all the Big 12 teams in the postseason mix, West Virginia is the biggest lock. The Mountaineers lead the league with a 19–6 conference record and need just one win over Kansas this weekend to clinch the regular season title.
With a top-25 RPI and the league’s best record, West Virginia has a strong case to host a regional. What a job by first-year head coach Steve Sabins, who has stepped in admirably after Randy Mazey’s retirement.
Who’s In
Kansas (2 Seed)
For the first time in over a decade, Kansas is projected safely into the field of 64. The Jayhawks have emerged as one of the league’s most consistent teams this season and appear to have shaken their postseason woes.
A strong showing against West Virginia this weekend could improve their résumé—and possibly help spoil the Mountaineers’ title hopes. They’re projected to land in the Fayetteville Regional, which would be a tough road for any two-seed.
Arizona State (2 Seed)
It might sound crazy, but the Sun Devils still have a slim shot to win the Big 12—though they’ll need a lot of help. Regardless, Arizona State’s 18–9 conference record is impressive. Even if they stumble against Oklahoma State and only win a game or two in Arlington, they’re safely in.
Arizona (3 Seed)
With an RPI in the 40s, Arizona might usually be sweating things out. But a 16–11 Big 12 mark changes the conversation. They’ll close the regular season against a struggling Houston team, and a series win would push them to 18 or 19 conference victories. That’s good enough to get in, regardless of what happens at the Big 12 Tournament.
Kansas State (3 Seed)
K-State was among the last four teams in last week’s projections, but things have shifted. Their RPI now sits in the top 38, and a 16–11 Big 12 record gives them a solid foundation. A huge series against Cincinnati looms—win that, and they likely punch their ticket.
Cincinnati (3 Seed)
The Bearcats sit comfortably inside the top 35 in RPI, but their 14–13 conference record keeps them on the fringe. If they lose—or worse, get swept—by Kansas State, they’ll be hovering around .500 or below in Big 12 play. That’s the danger zone. No Big 12 team may have more riding on this weekend than Cincinnati.
Who’s Out
Oklahoma State
Once the preseason favorite to win the league, the Cowboys now find themselves on the outside looking in. Sitting at 12–12 in Big 12 play with an RPI in the 50s, they’ll need a strong showing against Arizona State, plus a few wins in Arlington, to sneak in. Right now, they’re on the wrong side of the bubble.
