The Big 12 delivered one of its strongest campaigns in recent memory during the 2024 season, with a conference championship blowout, four teams finishing in the final AP Top 25, and multiple 10-win programs showing serious postseason muscle.
Yet, when ESPN dropped its initial Football Power Index (FPI) for 2025, the response across Big 12 circles was swift and unified: this feels like blatant disrespect.
Arizona State—fresh off a 45–19 throttling of Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and the league’s first trip to the expanded College Football Playoff—checks in at No. 24 in ESPN’s rankings.
BYU, which went 11–2 and handled Colorado with ease in the Alamo Bowl, is two spots higher at No. 26. Iowa State, whose 11–3 campaign included a Pop-Tarts Bowl win and one of the best defenses in the country, doesn’t crack the top 25.
Neither does Colorado, a 9–4 team that took a major leap under Deion Sanders.
Altogether, the conference placed four teams in the final AP rankings but found zero representation in ESPN’s FPI Top 20.
Meanwhile, programs from the SEC and Big Ten with weaker records or downward-trending narratives enjoy inflated respect in the index.
Missouri sits above Arizona State. Nebraska, with no major bowl appearance and ongoing questions at quarterback, still ranks higher than BYU. Oklahoma—now an SEC member—is somehow No. 16 despite going 6-7 and losing three of its last five games in 2024.
ESPN’s FPI is designed to be a predictive tool, balancing returning production, coaching continuity, schedule strength, and performance data. But the model’s outputs this year raise serious questions about baked-in bias.
Arizona State, the reigning Big 12 champion, is given just a 16.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Kansas State—ranked highest among Big 12 teams—has a 22.2% playoff probability, less than Alabama, Georgia, and Texas, all of whom have tougher paths and more roster turnover.
What’s more telling is that the Big 12 doesn’t lack star power. The league boasted multiple all-conference talents in 2024, including breakout quarterbacks, NFL-bound defensive backs, and top-five units on both sides of the ball, and several of the league’s top players are returning.
Recruiting has improved across the board, and several programs used the transfer portal masterfully this offseason. Texas Tech, in particular, stood out as arguably the best team in the country in the portal cycle, reloading both sides of the ball with impact starters that should make them a legitimate threat in 2025. And yet, they sit at No. 36 in the FPI, behind several teams that finished under .500 last year.
ESPN’s model seems stuck in 2020, not 2025. This isn’t just about numbers. FPI informs coverage, builds preseason narratives, and subtly shapes the playoff discussion months before any games are played. For a conference that’s already establish its identity post-Texas and Oklahoma, that perception gap matters.
The good news? The Big 12 gets to answer all of this where it counts: on the field. Non-conference matchups against SEC and Big Ten foes, early Big 12 tilts, and another deep playoff run could flip the script. But for now, the message is clear. If the Big 12 wants national respect, it won’t get it handed to them. They’ll have to take it—again—and prove that ESPN’s FPI may have underestimated their potential.
