Circa Sportsbook has released its over-under win totals for the 2025 Big 12 football season, and the numbers reflect a league that’s more balanced than ever.
No team is projected above 8.5 wins, and most programs are packed tightly in the middle. That sets the tone for a wide-open year where nearly every game will matter.
Leading the board are Arizona State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech, each set at 8.5 wins. That’s a clear message that oddsmakers see these teams as capable contenders, but not dominant favorites. With no double-digit projection, the top of the Big 12 is expected to be competitive but uncertain.
Close behind are three teams at 7.5 wins: Baylor, Iowa State, and Utah. Then Kansas at 7, followed by BYU, TCU, and Houston at 6.5. That cluster accounts for nearly half of the conference and highlights just how competitive the middle tier is. Nearly all of those teams are capable of pushing for a Big 12 title berth with the right breaks, but each one also has enough question marks to land short of expectations.
Cincinnati and Colorado fall at 6.0, and those are teams expected to hover around bowl eligibility, depending on how they handle a tough league slate. Below them are Arizona, Oklahoma State, and UCF at 5.5, and finally, West Virginia at 5.0. Those projections show that the gap between top and bottom isn’t wide, but the climb will be steep for teams trying to break through.
The biggest takeaway from Circa’s board is the parity. With no team projected above 8.5 wins and 13 of the 16 teams between 5.0 and 7.5, this season could bring weekly chaos. Every matchup has weight. There are no throwaways.
Programs like Kansas State and Texas Tech are positioned to rise, while others like UCF, Arizona, and Oklahoma State need to prove they’re better than their number. That middle tier of 7.5-win teams might decide the league, and whichever one gets hot at the right time could be playing in Arlington in December.
The win total release confirms what we already suspected. The 2025 Big 12 race will be a grind, and the difference between contending and collapsing may be just a couple of Saturdays.
