The Big 12 football season is just a couple of weeks away from starting, and all 16 teams are closing in on final scrimmages and even trips for season openers — looking at you, Iowa State and Kansas State.
After looking at each Big 12 team, here is their best-case scenario for the year. Yes, every team is trying to win the Big 12. But this is a realistic best-case scenario based on what is known about these teams after roughly two weeks of fall workouts.
Big 12 Championship/CFB Berth
These are the teams that are most likely to contend to win the Big 12 crown and, by extension, claim the league’s automatic playoff berth. Note that any of them that reach the championship game with 10 wins will probably contend for an at-large berth.
Arizona State
No contending team in the conference has more returning starters than Arizona State. Plus, most of those returning starters are at key positions all over the field. A repeat of both the Big 12 championship and a College Football Playoff berth isn’t off the table.
Kansas State
If Avery Johnson levels up his game at quarterback and the arduous September schedule doesn’t get the Wildcats, there’s a real chance for them to win the league and get to the CPF for the first time.
Texas Tech
The Red Raiders certainly have the talent. The consistency at quarterback, wide receiver, and other key positions should help. It’s all about whether the defense gets better. It’s not just the overall numbers from a year ago. It’s getting opponents off the field on third down and rushing the passer.
Big 12 Championship Game Berth
These are the teams that I think can reach the Big 12 title game but would probably be the underdog in the game, thereby making them the likely loser of that game.
Baylor
The question here is defense. Can the Bears get it together on that side of the ball with Dave Aranda calling the signals for a second straight year? If they can, then the Bears can get to Arlington. If they can’t, then the Bears will fall short but head to a bowl game. The talent is there to reach the Big 12 title game.
Iowa State
I could see the Cyclones getting back to Arlington for a second straight year. But how they replicate the production they lost at wide receiver may determine whether they get there or not. I’m betting if they are able to get a repeat invitation, that passing game will lead them.
TCU
By season’s end, quarterback Josh Hoover might have the best passing numbers in the conference. That’s if the new tools around him elevate themselves to the level of last year’s skill players. If they can, then the Horned Frogs may just make it back to Arlington. If not, a bowl game it is.
Bowl Game
These are the teams that I believe will win six or more games but won’t win enough games to get to the Big 12 championship game.
BYU
The quarterback situation scares me. But there is enough talent at key positions to overcome it. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill will have that unit moving in the right direction. The Cougars will do enough to get to a bowl game.
Colorado
So much turnover. The talent is there, but the consistency the Buffs had at quarterback, wide receiver, and cornerback is gone. That’s going to slow their progress early, though a surge at the end of the season, like a year ago, is possible.
Houston
This may be a year too soon for the Cougars. But the history of Willie Fritz as a coach is clear. His teams tend to make significant improvements in year two. Whether Houston gets to a bowl game or not hinges on the quarterback, Connor Weigman. I think they can win a minimum of six and get there.
Kansas
Quarterback Jalon Daniels is back for one more year, and the Jayhawks are more talented than they look on paper. The schedule is a bit more forgiving than a year ago, too. If they can win all three non-conference games, reaching a bowl game should be the ceiling for this team.
Oklahoma State
Speaking of scary quarterback situations, who knows what is going to happen here? I have a hard time seeing Coach Mike Gundy have two bad seasons in a row. I see them turning it around, but a bowl game is the best-case scenario for this group.
Utah
Same as Oklahoma State. The Utes are good enough to get back above .500 and to a bowl game, but that feels like as high as they’re able to go.
Under .500
These are the teams that I suspect won’t win enough games to reach a bowl game.
Arizona
I wouldn’t rule out the Wildcats having a losing record going into league play. If so, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Arizona to get to a bowl game in Brent Brennan’s second year.
Cincinnati
The Bearcats started well last season and tailed off. Coach Scott Satterfield should be on the hot seat going into this season, and there doesn’t seem to be enough talent for this team to get over the hump. Like Arizona, I could see the Bearcats starting 1-2.
UCF
This is almost a complete rebuild for new/old coach Scott Frost. The Knights don’t know who the quarterback will be, and they ended up with a much tougher schedule than a first-year coach in a rebuild would ask for.
West Virginia
The Mountaineers have a tough non-conference slate and, like UCF, they’re in a rebuild. Coach Rich Rodriguez is back, and he could have this program moving in the right direction by late in the season. But the start will probably be much rougher than expected.
