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Kansas State vs. North Dakota Prediction, Pick vs. Spread and Top Storylines

Oct 26, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (2) drops back to pass during the third quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

No. 17 Kansas State seeks revenge, hosting North Dakota in Week 1 after a stunning 24-21 loss to Big 12 rival Iowa State in Dublin during Week 0. KSU returns to its home turf against the Fighting Hawks on Saturday, Aug. 30.

The Week 1 battle will air on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. EST., with the Wildcats coming into the game as 25.5-point favorites, as the over/under is set at 55.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.

Two Key Players to Watch

Joe Jackson (RB, Kansas State)

With starting running back Dylan Edwards out, Joe Jackson could see an expanded role against North Dakota. His ability to create chunk plays makes him a potential difference-maker as K-State looks to rebound. Jackson showed flashes in the season opener, posting 51 yards on 12 carries. If Kansas State can get the ground game going early, it’ll take off pressure on quarterback Avery Johnson.

Jerry Kaminski (QB, North Dakota)

North Dakota quarterback Jerry Kaminski will be a key player to watch in Saturday’s matchup. The redshirt sophomore is stepping into the starting role, as he is known for his dual-threat ability. Kaminski brings a different dimension to the Fighting Hawks’ offense. He appeared in just two games last season and completed four passes. If North Dakota hopes to keep things competitive in Manhattan, Kaminski’s ability to extend plays and protect the football will be critical in his first collegiate start.

Two Key Storylines

Can the Wildcats Bounce Back with a Fast Start in Home Opener?

After scoring just seven points through the first three quarters in Week 0, Kansas State needs a fast start to set the tone in its home opener. Establishing early rhythm on offense will be critical, not just to build confidence, but to quiet any lingering doubts after the Dublin loss. While Avery Johnson threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns, Kansas State’s offense must cut down on mistakes, and the defense needs to be more effective on third down to avoid extended drives.

North Dakota Looks to Establish the Run

Considering its Kaminski’s first start, North Dakota will have to get its run game going early to relieve the pressure off the redshirt sophomore. The team will turn to Gaven Ziebarth, who returns after posting 133 carries for 534 yards and eight touchdowns in 2024. If he can find early success on the ground, it could help Kaminski settle in and keep the offense on schedule.

Prediction: Kansas State 42, North Dakota 7

With a Kansas State team determined to bounce back, and an inexperienced North Dakota squad coming to town, the Wildcats shouldn’t face much trouble at home. The talent gap heavily favors K-State. Expect the Wildcats to establish control early, get Avery Johnson comfortable, and rotate in depth by the second half if things go as planned.

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