The Baylor Bears’ challenging non-conference slate continues in Week 2 with a matchup against No. 17 SMU, a team that reached the College Football Playoff last season. BU is coming off a disappointing 38-24 loss to Auburn and now faces the risk of an 0-2 start.
Head coach Dave Aranda and the Bears will face the Mustangs on Saturday, Sept. 6 at 12 p.m. ET in a road matchup in Dallas on The CW Network. SMU comes into the game as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 65.5 total points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Sawyer Robertson (QB, Baylor)
Despite the loss, Sawyer Robertson showed promise in the season opener, throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns. However, with the Bears playing from behind most of the game, he completed just 56% of his passes, a number that will need to improve. Baylor will need a more efficient and controlled performance from its quarterback in Week 2 and with receivers like Kole Wilson and Michael Trigg coming off strong Week 1 performances, Baylor’s offense has the potential to keep pace with SMU.
Romello Brinson (WR, SMU)
After a seven-catch, 121-yard outing in Week 1, Baylor’s defense will need to focus on containing SMU wide receiver Romello Brinson. Paired with an elite passer in Kevin Jennings, Brinson has the potential to be the difference-maker in the Mustangs’ aerial attack once again. His speed and route-running ability make him a constant downfield threat, as he averaged 17.3 yards per catch last week. If Baylor can’t keep him in check, it could be a long afternoon for the Bears’ secondary.
Two Key Storylines
Baylor Trying to Avoid Another Slow Start
After a 2–4 start in 2024, Dave Aranda landed on the hot seat before rallying the team to finish strong. But if Baylor stumbles out of the gate again in 2025, he could be facing renewed pressure once more. With a challenging Big 12 slate ahead, Baylor might need to pull off a few upsets to stay competitive this year. That makes Saturday’s matchup against SMU even more crucial. A win could stabilize the season early, while a loss might deepen concerns around the program.
Baylor’s Run Defense Struggles
The Bears surrendered over 300 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Auburn, taking all the pressure off Tigers quarterback Jackson Arnold. If Baylor doesn’t tighten things up defensively, SMU’s deep backfield, featuring Chris Johnson Jr., T.J. Harden, and Derrick McFall, could produce similar results. That kind of imbalance would allow SMU to control the tempo and keep Baylor’s offense off the field. For a team already under pressure, another defensive letdown could be costly.
Prediction: SMU 35, Baylor 24
The Mustangs look like the more balanced and complete team right now, especially with the confidence of a College Football Playoff run behind them. If Baylor can’t force turnovers or get stops on third down, it could get difficult for the squad to keep pace for four quarters. With SMU’s balanced rushing attack facing a Baylor defense that struggled in Week 1, Jennings could be in position to lead the Mustangs to a convincing win, especially if the ground game takes the pressure off him early.
