What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.
This week, two Big 12 football teams have staked an early claim to being this year’s Arizona State.
The Early Returns on Two Big 12 Risers
We’re three weeks into the season (officially). There have only been two Big 12 games played. But, there’s enough of a sample size to start thinking about which team could do what Arizona State did a year ago — even though there’s no official Big 12 preseason poll to gauge that.
Last year’s turnaround will live forever. The Sun Devils, coming off an awful season, were picked last in the Big 12 coaches and media polls. There was really no shame in that, honestly. Coach Kenny Dillingham was entering his second season, and it takes time to build a winner. Turns out it takes two years.
Arizona State went from worst to first, winning the Big 12 Championship game against Iowa State and then playing Texas in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals in what was undoubtedly the best game in that round of the CFP. ASU lost, but they staked a claim as a contender for this season. The loss to Mississippi State last weekend doesn’t change that in my mind.
At Big 12 Media Days in July, with no official media or coaches’ poll to crib from, the search was on to find that “trendy” team that could make that kind of turnaround. Two teams have emerged in the early stages of this season — Arizona and Houston.
Arizona’s Turnaround Starts with Defense
I wrote in my Big 12 notes piece earlier in the week that, statistically, Arizona was one of the country’s best defenses. The Wildcats were tied for fourth in scoring defense (4.5 ppg) and tops in the country in turnovers forced per game. I wrote that, given the Wildcats’ first two opponents — Hawai’i and Weber State — I needed to see more. So, the Kansas State game was one I was eager to follow.
While Kansas State has struggled, it has enough weapons to beat a defense. That’s why seeing Arizona hold Kansas State to 193 total yards, limit quarterback Avery Johnson to 88 passing yards, and force a turnover was instructive. Arizona got Kansas State off the field consistently (K-State was 3-for-13 on third down), and it failed to convert a fourth down on four tries.
Defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales was on staff last year as a linebackers coach under Duane Akina. The unit was decimated by injuries and, statistically, was one of the worst in college football. Akina is back at Texas as a defensive backs coach. Gonzales has a healthier unit and has coached it into the Top 25 in total defense (222.3 yards per game). Arizona’s ability to create turnovers, be effective on third down, and keep opponents out of the end zone should keep them competitive.
Houston’s Hot Start
The Houston Cougars are 3-0 for the first time since 201,6, and they defeated the Colorado Buffaloes, 36-20. We don’t do picks here at Heartland, but had I been asked, I would have taken the Buffs. CU coach Deion Sanders was not happy with his team after the game. Houston coach Willie Fritz must have been over the moon.
After I saw Houston against Stephen F. Austin, I had concerns about quarterback Conner Weigman and his ability to work through progressions. My concerns were somewhat alleviated against Colorado. But what is abundantly clear is that Fritz and his offensive staff want to work this offense through the run, and if they can do that effectively, then Friday’s performance by Weigman — 15-of-24 with 222 passing yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions — will probably be the norm. Houston rushed 53 times for 209 yards with three scores. The balance was excellent and kept CU’s defense on its heels.
The Cougars shouldn’t run from the running game. In three games, they’re averaging 201.3 yards per game, good for No. 40 in the nation, with 604 yards on 137 carries. The incredible part? Houston leads the nation in total carries. It’s a spot usually reserved for the service academies (Army West Point is right behind the Coogs at 136). It probably won’t last, but Houston wants to run this offense through Weigman, along with running backs Dean Connors and Stacy Sneed. So far, it’s working.
The Better Bet?
Fritz has the track record. Averaging out his five previous stops, his teams improved by three wins from his first season to his second season. The Cougars have already won two, away from matching last year’s four wins. All the 65-year-old does is win. If the program he takes over is down, it doesn’t stay down long.
Houston gets a shot at Oregon State in Corvallis in two weeks before it faces Texas Tech to start October. Win both? Well, Houston is a team to take seriously.
I’m not certain I expected this from Arizona. Coach Brent Brennan’s first year was near disastrous on many levels. But Gonzales has been a godsend. The defense is healthy. And, unlike a year ago, the Wildcats are more able to spread the ball around in the passing game with the experienced Noah Fifita at quarterback. Arizona is tested in two weeks at Iowa State, followed by home games with Oklahoma State and BYU. Run that table or go 2-1 and start taking the Wildcats seriously.
The good news for both is that their success is being fueled by things that play well, home or road, in September or December. When the running game or the defense is working, chances are your team is going to win.
