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Oregon State vs. Houston: Prediction, ATS Pick and Key Storylines

Sep 6, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars running back Dean Connors (44) runs with the ball as Rice Owls linebacker Andrew Awe (0) attempts to make a tackle during the first quarter at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

A high-stakes non-conference spotlight lands on the Big 12 this Friday night as Houston (3–0) travels to Corvallis to face Oregon State (0–4) at Reser Stadium. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. Central on Friday, September 26th, with the Cougars looking to stay perfect before Big 12 play kicks into full gear. For Oregon State, winless through four games, this is a last stand to salvage a season teetering on collapse. With no other Big 12 team playing out-of-conference this weekend, all eyes will be on Houston as it carries the banner in unfamiliar territory.

The Cougars enter the game as 13.5-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 47.5 points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.

Two Key Players to Watch

Maalik Murphy, Oregon State Quarterback

Murphy enters the game as Oregon State’s signal caller with a 6‑foot‑5 frame and a reputation for a strong arm. Through the early stretch of the season, he has thrown for 964 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. His effectiveness depends on how often he can drop in accurate throws under pressure and whether he can bounce back from recent struggles, including being just 5 of 18 against Oregon.

Dean Connors, Houston Running Back

Connors has become Houston’s workhorse from day one. The 6‑foot, 206‑pound senior transfer from Rice already has 271 yards and three touchdowns on just 50 carries this season, averaging 5.4 yards per rush. He is also a reliable receiver out of the backfield, giving the Cougars flexibility in both the running and passing games.

Top Storylines

Breaking the Cycle

The Beavers are winless, and the record speaks for itself. Missed tackles, red-zone failures, and turnovers have been their undoing every week. Still, the talent is not entirely the issue. If Murphy can avoid mistakes and the offensive line holds up against Houston’s pass rush, Oregon State has enough to at least stick close. But at 0–4, pressure is mounting, and this team can’t afford another slip.

It’s a Trap, Folks

Houston is undefeated, and that alone is a storyline. Wins over Stephen F. Austin and Rice didn’t do much in terms of credibility, but a win over Deion Sanders and Colorado did. This will be another test, though the opponent is sitting at 0-4. Don’t be the team that starts out sluggish or overlooks anyone.

Prediction: Houston 37, Oregon State 17

With Connor Weigman leading the offense and Dean Connors providing a reliable ground game, Houston has the right blend of explosiveness and control to take care of business in Corvallis. Oregon State will test the Cougars with Maalik Murphy’s arm talent and some chunk-play potential, but their inefficiency and turnover issues remain a concern. Willie Fritz has Houston playing clean, organized football early in his tenure, and that edge in discipline should show up in the second half. Expect the Cougars to pull away late behind Weigman’s composure and Connors’ physicality in the run game.

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