A high-stakes Big 12 showdown takes place on Saturday evening in Ames, Iowa, as Iowa State (4-0, 1-0 in Big 12) hosts Arizona (3-0) at Jack Trice Stadium. Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. Central on Saturday, September 27th, with the Cyclones and Wildcats both looking to stay perfect for the season. Iowa State already has a league win under its belts with the victory over Kansas State in Ireland. Arizona is hoping to prove its early turnaround is no fluke.
The Cyclones enter the game as 6.5-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 48.5 points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Rocco Becht, Iowa State Quarterback
Becht has been rock solid under center even as the majority of his wide receiver room turned over from a season ago, including the loss of a pair of 1,000-yard receivers to the NFL. Through four games he’s completed 65% of his passes, thrown for 888 yards and has seven touchdowns against one interception. He’s thrown the ball to 13 different pass catchers, so he’s spreading things out. But, with league action here, expect him to lock in on the receivers he trusts most.
Ismail Mahdi, Arizona Running Back
Part of the reason the Wildcats struggled so much last season was that they really had no running game to lean on This year, Mahdi is giving Arizona what it lacked a year ago. He has 263 yards and a touchdown in three games. The Wildcats will spread things out — expect Quincy Craig to get carries — but between the pair they can take pressure off quarterback Noah Fifita and help offensive coordinator Seth Doege open up the field.
Top Storylines
Can Iowa State Offense Test Arizona Defense?
Arizona has put up some of the best defensive numbers in the country so far this season. The unit, under Danny Gonzales, is among the Top 10 in the country in scoring defense through three games. The Cyclones pose the biggest challenge yet to that ranking. The Cyclones have a balanced attack and have the ability to stretch the field in the passing game. Expect ISU to grind it out early and air it out if they feel they have the Wildcats on their heels.
The Fifita Factor
Noah Fifita is the most dynamic quarterback the Cyclones have faced since Kansas State’s Avery Johnson in the season opener — and Fifita is playing better than Johnson after three games. He is Arizona’s leader in rushing touchdowns and has thrown for more than 700 yards. He’s avoiding the mistakes that led to his downturn last year and spreading the ball more. Iowa State’s defense will have to make decisions on how to keep Fifita under wraps, especially with a running game that allows the Wildcats to be more balanced than a year ago.
Prediction: Iowa State 27, Arizona 24
Both defenses are good enough to keep this game under 30 points for both teams. Both are coming off bye weeks and should be well-rested. This will be Arizona’s toughest game to this point and Iowa State has already played three games that would qualify as tough. The Cyclones are more battle-tested and while Arizona should keep this close, the Cyclones will be the one that remains undefeated.
