We’ve reached the middle of October, and the Big 12 standings are taking shape. While there is currently a three-way tie atop the Big 12 standings with BYU, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech all 3-0 in conference play, the Red Raiders have jumped out as the team to beat.
Texas Tech has the best conference win of the season so far, a dominant 34-10 road win at Utah, which was ranked No. 16 at the time; now they are ranked No. 23. The Red Raiders have a balanced attack on offense and defense and look like the best team in the conference.
Meanwhile, BYU just squeaked by Arizona in double overtime and also snuck by Colorado by three points in their first game of conference play. Things don’t get easier for the Cougars with Utah coming to town this weekend and then road games at Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati in the upcoming month. If BYU can come out of those four games with a 2-2 record, they’ll have a shot to make a run at the Big 12 Championship game.
Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bearcats were able to sneak by Kansas in Lawrence to kick off their conference schedule. You have to give Cincinnati credit for getting that win, but Kansas took the lead with 1:45 left in the game, and the Jayhawk defense couldn’t stop the Bearcats from moving the ball 75 yards in 1:16 to get the game-winning touchdown. Cincinnati’s dominant win at home against Iowa State seemed like a win to legitimize their season and as Big 12 contenders.
Although Iowa State has since dropped a game to Colorado as well, it doesn’t take away from a quality win for the Bearcats. A 20-11 win over UCF last weekend wasn’t impressive, but as long as the wins keep piling up, you can’t count out this team. Their toughest game left on the schedule comes on November 1st at Utah. They’ll also have a couple of tough games to close the season when they host BYU on November 22 and end the season on the road at TCU on November 29th.
Utah, Arizona State, Houston, and Baylor are all 2-1 in conference play thus far. If Utah can get by BYU this weekend, it will be the top contender from this tier of teams to make a run at the Big 12 Championship Game. Arizona State could get its season back on track with a win at home over Texas Tech this weekend. The Sun Devils are hoping to get starting quarterback Sam Leavitt back this weekend after he missed the game in a 42-10 loss at Utah last weekend. A loss this weekend would likely put ASU out of the running. There’s still a lot of season left, but Houston and Baylor don’t seem like contenders despite their current records.
Teams like Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona, and TCU have zero room for error with two losses in conference. The crazy thing about the Big 12 is the depth in the conference. Teams two through 12 are not very different as far as competitive balance goes. It’s very likely that a team with two losses in conference will still be able to be one of the representatives in the Big 12 Championship Game at the end of the season. That’s when the all-important tie-breakers could really come into play.
There is still a lot of time left in this season for many different scenarios to shake out. My prediction would be that Texas Tech wins the regular-season Big 12 title and is one of the schools that represent the Big 12 in the championship game. BYU, Cincinnati, and Utah are in the best position to make a run at that second spot, but last year, we also saw what Arizona State can do when their backs are up against a wall.
Looking at the schedules, my best guess would be Utah beats BYU and Cincinnati to gain the tie-breaker over both of those teams and will get a second crack at Texas Tech in Arlington, Texas, at AT&T Stadium on December 6th. The fight for second place in the Big 12 will likely go down to the final week of the regular season, and we’ll be sure to get a whole lot of entertainment between now and then.
