Saturday’s matchup in Lawrence, Kansas, carries high-stakes implications for two programs trying to steady the course in the Big 12. Both programs sit at 2-2 in conference play, and whichever program earns its third loss has its hopes of hoisting the Big 12 trophy effectively eliminated. K-State has dominated the series in recent history, winning 16 straight against the Jayhawks, but in 2025, the Jayhawks are favored for the first time since 2008.
A total of six points has decided the last two matchups between these programs, and if history continues down that path, this year should be another close game. Kansas is favored by 3.0, and the over/under is set at 56.5 points. Here are two key players to watch in this game, followed by the top storylines for each team, and a prediction from Heartland College Sports.
Two Key Players to Watch
Emmanuel Henderson, Kansas Wide Receiver
At this point, Emmanuel Henderson should be on every Big 12 fan’s radar. The Alabama transfer has been elite for the Jayhawks this year, bringing in 31 catches for 531 yards, with four scores as well. He’s been an instrumental piece of Kansas’ air-raid attack this fall, and will likely be a major factor again on Saturday. Kansas State’s defense has been known to give up big plays down the field, and Henderson should have a shot at making some plays happen this weekend in Lawrence.
Joe Jackson, Kansas State Running Back
If it wasn’t already painfully obvious, things in the running back room haven’t been what folks in Manhattan have expected. Dylan Edwards has been banged up and hasn’t been in action much this year, which has led to Joe Jackson stepping up. Jackson is coming off an outing against TCU where he recorded a career high in carries with 27 for 110 yards. He’ll need to find success on the ground against Kansas for the Wildcats to extend the streak.
Top Storylines
Break the Streak
16-straight losses. That has to be enough. In years past, the Jayhawks have had games wrapped up until disaster struck in the fourth quarter. An interception here, a fumble there. Somehow, Kansas cannot get over the hump. This year has to be different. Kansas plays host to a beat-up and struggling team in their brand new stadium, and Saturday’s game might finally be the day the seal breaks.
Win the Fourth Quarter
As noted above, Kansas State has made the plays when it mattered most. Whether it be under Will Howard two years ago or Avery Johnson last year, the Wildcats trailed in the fourth quarter yet emerged victorious. This year, K-State has been awful compared to its preseason expectations. In order for Kansas State to steal one on the road, it will come down to winning the fourth quarter and winning the turnover battle.
Prediction: Kansas 41, Kansas State 37
It’s hard to bet against history, but today I will. Kansas should beat Kansas State on paper. They’re pissed off, and it’s been 16 years since they’ve won a game against their in-state rivals. This year looks ripe for the taking, and I’m rolling with Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks to win in a high-stakes shootout.
