There has been a lot of shake-up in the Big 12 since mid-September, when I last took a look at the contenders vs pretenders heading into conference play. There were some contenders who are now pretenders, some pretenders who may just shock us all and be contenders, and one team that wasn’t on anyone’s radar who is flying high now. Let’s take a look.
Contender: Cincinnati
Who saw this one coming? After a season-opening loss in Kansas City to Nebraska, the Bearcats have not lost since. One of only two undefeated teams at this point in the season, Cincinnati is a no-doubt contender at this point in the season. A big game at Utah looms this weekend, and College Game Day decided they wanted a front-row seat for this one.
Pretender: Kansas
Some would say they were never a contender, which is a fair assessment. After taking Cincinnati to the wire and falling just short, the Jayhawks have also dropped games at Texas Tech and at home against Kansas State. Both of those scores were 42-17 blowouts. The Jayhawks are toast and will be lucky to gain bowl eligibility at this point.
Contender: BYU
The Cougars have looked incredible all season long. They are the last Big 12 team with an undefeated overall record and have vaulted themselves into the Top 10 nationally after a big road win at Iowa State. Road games at Texas Tech and Cincinnati will be a huge test for the Cougars in the final month of the regular season. If BYU runs the table, they will not only be in the Big 12 Championship game, but they will be a lock for the College Football Playoff as well.
Pretender: Iowa State
The Cyclones have fallen hard after a 5-0 start to the season. They have now lost three consecutive conference games: at Cincinnati, at Colorado, and this past week was a home loss to BYU. For a team that was at the top of the contenders list in September, this has to be the most disappointing team in the Big 12 as November football gets underway.
Contender: Texas Tech
Despite injuries to both their starting and backup quarterbacks, the Red Raiders are still 4-1 in conference play and ranked No. 13 nationally. They have a tough game at Kansas State this weekend, but if they can get through that one on the road, there’s a good chance Tech can be in the Big 12 Championship game at the end of the season and play their way into a College Football Playoff spot.
Pretender: Arizona State
Arizona State had a chance to control its own destiny with a big win over Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago, but a home loss to Houston absolutely crushed its chances to make a run at the Big 12 Championship. The Sun Devils have been up and down all season, but with a top-heavy Big 12 at the moment (four teams with one or fewer losses and a two-loss team in Utah with a tie-breaker ahead of them), it will be tough for them to get back into the top two.
Contender: Houston
The Houston Cougars have been an absolute surprise to me this season. Their lone loss this season was to Texas Tech, a respectable loss. After an upset win at Arizona State last weekend, the Cougars jumped into the Top 25 for the first time since 2022. Houston had one of the easiest conference schedules in 2025, and they will not face a ranked opponent in the final month of the season. If Houston wins out, beating West Virginia, UCF, TCU, and Baylor, they have a chance to be in the Big 12 Championship game. However, they do not control their own destiny. They will need Texas Tech to lose a game to have a chance to finish in the top two in the conference.
The final month of the season will see more shakeups, heartbreaks, joyful moments, and more as the Big 12 sorts itself out. With BYU and Cincinnati set to play each other on November 22nd, there will not be two teams that go undefeated in conference play. Tie-breakers will likely decide not only second place but could also play a role in first place by the end of the season as well. Buckle up, Big 12 fans!
