The new SP+ rankings dropped this week from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, and once again, BYU somehow finds itself trailing Texas Tech and Utah. Never mind the fact that the Cougars are still undefeated. Never mind that they’ve already beaten Utah head-to-head. The formula still says they’re third in line.
According to the latest update, Texas Tech carries a rating of 24.3, Utah comes in at 21.3, and BYU sits at 17.2. That’s not a small gap either. It’s the kind of spread that makes you do a double-take and wonder what game Connelly’s algorithm is watching.
BYU fans have a right to be annoyed. This team has done everything asked of them so far. They’ve won their games, taken care of a rivalry matchup against a ranked Utah squad, and they’ve done it without any smoke and mirrors. But for some reason, the computers just aren’t buying in.
Now, to be fair, SP+ isn’t about wins and losses. It’s based on efficiency, explosiveness, and some other advanced stuff that seems more focused on margin than outcome. That’s all well and good if you’re trying to figure out who looks clean on paper, but at some point, you have to let results matter.
Texas Tech being at the top isn’t shocking. When they’re healthy, they look like the most complete team in the Big 12. Utah being up there makes sense, too; they’ve settled in since a rocky start and still carry weight from what they were projected to be in August. But BYU? They’ve done nothing but prove people wrong since the season started, and they’re still being treated like the third wheel.
That’s the thing about advanced stats. They’re useful, but they’re not gospel. And when one team has the better record, the head-to-head win, and still can’t break through in the model, it starts to feel more like noise than analysis.
It’s not a crisis, but it’s worth watching. If BYU keeps winning, the numbers should eventually catch up. If they don’t, you’ll start seeing playoff and bowl projections that don’t reflect what’s actually happening on the field.
Until then, the Cougars are still undefeated. The numbers just haven’t noticed yet.
