Just when it felt like Dave Aranda had steadied the ship in Waco, Baylor has landed back on the national radar for all the wrong reasons. On3 named the Bears as one of the top college football jobs to watch this offseason, and it’s not hard to see why. With Baylor sitting at 5-4 overall and 3-3 in Big 12 play, things are once again getting uncomfortable for Aranda.
Last year, he bought himself some breathing room with an 8-5 finish that quieted the noise. But that leash isn’t exactly long, especially when the season started with legitimate optimism. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson returned, and the general vibe around the program was that Baylor had a real shot to be in the Big 12 mix. Fast forward to November, and the Bears are grinding through a stretch that feels more like a countdown than a climb.
On3 pointed out that Baylor’s upcoming schedule, Utah, Arizona, and Houston, isn’t exactly a stroll. Any of those three can hand the Bears a loss, and if they drop two of the next three, it’s hard to imagine Aranda walking into the offseason without questions coming from every direction. His buyout is in the $12 million range, which makes the conversation a little more complicated, but let’s not pretend that number scares athletic departments the way it used to.
There’s no denying Aranda has had flashes. That 2021 run still holds weight, but this isn’t a “what have you done before” business. It’s about right now. And right now, Baylor feels stuck in the middle. Not bad enough to be irrelevant, but not good enough to matter. That’s a dangerous place to live in a league that’s getting deeper and more aggressive every year.
If the Bears can scrape out a winning record and close strong, maybe that cools things off for another year. But if they stumble and finish 6-6 or worse, it won’t be surprising to see the Bears become a real player in the coaching carousel conversation.
Whether Baylor wants to admit it or not, they’re officially back in the watchlist territory, and Aranda’s name is front and center.
