As the 2025 season barrels toward the finish line, three Big 12 teams are officially in the playoff conversation, and the numbers back it up. According to the latest projections, Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah all have better than a 20 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Leading the group is Texas Tech, sitting with an 84 percent chance to crash the postseason. That’s not a typo. The Red Raiders are in full control of their path right now, and the formula likes what it sees. Between Joey McGuire’s defense and the way they’ve taken care of business down the stretch, it’s hard to argue against it. The Big 12 has been a rollercoaster this year, but Tech has managed to stay clean through the traffic.
BYU isn’t far behind, holding a 45 percent shot to make the cut. They’ve played tough, won the games they were supposed to, and have enough left on the table to improve their case. The Cougars haven’t been flashy, but they’ve been consistent, and that goes a long way.
Utah rounds out the trio with a 24 percent chance. They’ve dropped a couple, but the Utes still have enough respect in the model to stay alive in the conversation. They’ll need help, and they’ll need to clean things up quickly, but Kyle Whittingham’s squad isn’t dead yet. The fact they’re still hovering in the mix tells you what kind of baseline they’ve built.
These numbers don’t mean a whole lot if the wins stop coming, but they do show where the race stands heading into the final weeks. Tech is in the driver’s seat, BYU is in the chase pack, and Utah is hanging on to the rope.
For a league that’s been mocked as being too deep for its own good, this is exactly the kind of breakdown the Big 12 needed. Three teams with legitimate playoff odds in November? That’s a pretty decent place to be.
Now it’s just about surviving the stretch. The numbers are fine, but the scoreboard decides who’s getting a ticket.
