If Cincinnati ends up watching the Big 12 title game from home this year, they’re going to look back at Saturday’s 30-24 loss to Arizona and shake their heads. The Bearcats had a real shot to stay in the front seat of the Arlington race, and they just straight up didn’t show up when it mattered most.
This wasn’t some blowout loss where you tip your cap and move on. It was a winnable game that Cincinnati let slip. And now, instead of controlling their own fate, the Bearcats are officially in the “we need help” category.
They’re 5-2 in Big 12 play after the loss, which keeps them in the mix, but the math got a lot trickier. A win would’ve put them in a prime position with two weeks left. Instead, they’ve got to win out and hope a couple of teams above them take a wrong turn. Not impossible, but definitely not ideal.
It gets tougher when you look at what’s left on the schedule. Cincinnati now faces the 13th hardest remaining slate in the country. Their final opponents have a combined win percentage of .741. That’s not great news when you’re hanging on by a thread. Up next is BYU, and that one’s going to be massive. If the Bearcats lose that, it’s over. Plain and simple.
The frustrating part is that Cincinnati has the pieces to make a run. The defense has been solid most of the year, and when the offense clicks, it’s good enough to win in this league. But in a season like this, good enough isn’t going to cut it. Especially not when the schedule tightens and every snap matters.
There’s still a path to Arlington. But it’s no longer paved. Cincinnati’s going to have to fight for every yard, win both games left, and hope a few dominoes fall their way. The margin for error is gone, and the excuses went out the window with that loss to Arizona.
